Classic Wave Analysis of SOL/USDT
1. Overview of the general trend (weekly time frame)
• Current price: 172.12 USDT
• Highest price in 24 hours: 174.68 USDT
• Lowest price in 24 hours: 168.07 USDT
• General trend:
• The price is in an uptrend in the medium term, but there is a strong resistance at 206.82 - 223.69 USDT.
• The recent high at 295.83 USDT was not re-reached, indicating strong resistances at higher levels.
2. Classical waves according to Elliott Wave Analysis
a) Impulse Waves
1️⃣ Wave 1: Strong rise from 1.03 USDT to 245.71 USDT (Main Uptrend).
2️⃣ Wave 2: Sharp correction after the top, price reached 51.15 USDT (classic correction after the initial rise).
3️⃣ Wave 3: New bullish extension to 295.83 USDT, the highest level ever recorded.
4️⃣ Wave 4: Partial correction to 206.82 USDT, which is a major support level.
5️⃣ Wave 5: An attempt to test the previous high but the price did not break through, indicating a weakness in the upward momentum.
📌 Conclusion:
• If the price does not break 206.82 USDT, this may be the beginning of a deeper correction (bearish A-B-C wave).
• If the price can break 223.69 USDT steadily, it may start a new wave cycle towards 250 - 295 USDT levels.
b) Corrective Waves (A-B-C)
• Wave A: It started after the top at 295.83 USDT and fell to 206.82 USDT.
• Wave B: Bullish bounce to 223.69 USDT, but there was not enough momentum to break the resistance.
• Wave C: If 206.82 USDT is broken, we may see a new decline to 150 - 136 USDT, where there is strong support.
📌 Important note:
• If 206.82 USDT is broken upwards, wave C may be incomplete and the uptrend will return.
• If 172.12 USDT is broken downwards, we may see confirmation that the correction is still ongoing.
3. Time-Based Analysis
• The top was achieved at 295.83 USDT after an upward wave that lasted for more than a year.
• The current correction has been ongoing for more than 6 months, indicating that the correction cycle is not over yet.
• If the price continues to correct for another 2-3 months, there may be a chance to retest the support at 136 - 150 USDT before resuming the uptrend.
📌 Conclusion:
• If the price does not break 206.82 USDT in the coming weeks, we are likely to see a deeper correction up to 150 USDT before moving up.
• If a clear breakout occurs above 223.69 USDT, a new wave cycle may start towards 250 - 295 USDT.
4. Technical indicators and their impact on time waves
• EMA(7) = 198.02 USDT (Short Moving Average)
• EMA(25) = 192.65 USDT (End Moving Average)
• EMA(99) = 133.63 USDT (Long-term moving average)
✅ Possible signs:
• The price is below EMA(7) and EMA(25), indicating that the upward momentum is currently weak.
• If the price returns above 200 USDT, this may be a signal that the uptrend will resume.
• MACD = -6.13, which means that the downtrend is still relatively dominant.
📊 Possible scenarios based on time wave analysis
🔴 Negative (corrective) scenario
• If the price does not break 206.82 USDT, we may see further decline towards 172 → 150 → 136 USDT.
• Correction confirmation will be if 172.12 USDT breaks down steadily.
🟢 Positive (bullish) scenario
• If the price breaks 206.82 USDT steadily, we may see a rise to 223 → 250 → 295 USDT.
• Momentum must improve and volume must increase to confirm the new bullish wave.
🔥 Recommendations and proposed strategies
📌 For the long-term investor:
✅ Buy at 150 - 136 USDT if correction continues.
✅ Wait for confirmation of the break of 206.82 USDT before entering with large amounts.
📌 For short-term speculators:
✅ Sell at 206.82 - 223.69 USDT if the price does not break these levels.
✅ Buy at 172.12 USDT but with a stop loss at 168 USDT.
📌 For wave-based trading:
✅ Enter buy trades after breaking 206.82 USDT with a target of 250 - 295 USDT.
✅ Enter sell trades if the price fails to break 206.82 USDT and 172.12 USDT is broken downwards
