Classic Wave Timeframe Technical Analysis for XVG/USDT
1. Overview of the general trend (weekly time frame)
• Current price: 0.006565 USDT
• Highest price in 24 hours: 0.006650 USDT
• Lowest price in 24 hours: 0.006230 USDT
• General trend:
• The coin has been in a long-term downtrend since it reached 0.080000 USDT levels, losing most of its value.
• The price is currently in an Accumulation Phase after strong bearish waves.
• Strong resistance is at 0.014762 USDT, which is the last high before the re-correction.
📌 What do we conclude?
• The price is still moving below all moving averages, which means that the bullish momentum is still weak.
• Any break above 0.007954 USDT (EMA 25) could give the first bullish signal in the short term.
2. Elliott Wave Analysis
a) Impulse Waves
✅ If we consider that the bullish cycle started at 0.001400 USDT, we might have the following scenario:
1️⃣ Wave 1: Rise from 0.001400 USDT to 0.014762 USDT.
2️⃣ Wave 2: Downward correction to 0.006500 USDT (recently tested).
3️⃣ The third wave: It may start if 0.007954 USDT is breached, and it may reach 0.014 - 0.020 USDT.
4️⃣ Wave 4: Small correction to 0.010 - 0.012 USDT levels.
5️⃣ Wave 5: If the bullish scenario is successful, we may see an extension to 0.025 - 0.030 USDT.
📌 Important note:
• The third wave should be confirmed by an increase in trading volume and an increase in the RSI above 50.
• If the price remains below 0.007954 USDT, the bullish scenario may fail and the market will continue to move sideways or downward.
b) Corrective Waves (A-B-C)
✅ If we consider that wave A started at 0.014762 USDT, we might have the following scenario:
• Wave A: Sharp drop from 0.014762 USDT to 0.006500 USDT.
• Wave B: A bounce attempt that may reach 0.008500 - 0.009000 USDT.
• Wave C: If the price fails to break 0.009000 USDT, we may see a new decline towards 0.005500 - 0.004800 USDT.
📌 Important note:
• If the price breaks 0.005500 USDT, it means that we may enter a new bearish wave towards 0.004000 USDT.
• If it breaks 0.008500 USDT steadily, this may be a sign of the end of the correction and the beginning of a new upward wave.
3. Time Cycles Analysis
✅ Looking at the price time frame can help us identify future changes:
• The period between the peak of 0.014762 USDT and the current bottom of 0.006500 USDT took approximately 4 months.
• If the price continues to correct in the same pattern, we may see the end of the correction within the next two months, and then the upward attempt begins.
• If the price breaks 0.008500 USDT in the coming weeks, there could be strong bullish momentum before mid-2024.
📌 What does that mean?
• If the market continues in the current pattern until mid-2024 without breaking 0.008500 USDT, the sideways phase may continue for a longer period.
• If 0.008500 USDT is broken soon, the third bullish wave may start earlier than expected.
4. Technical analysis using Fibonacci Analysis
📌 Identifying important levels using Fibonacci:
1️⃣ 0.236 Fibonacci level: 0.008000 USDT (first resistance to break).
2️⃣ 0.382 Fibonacci level: 0.009500 USDT (next resistance).
3️⃣ 0.5 Fibonacci level: 0.011000 USDT (if broken, the overall trend may change).
4️⃣ 0.618 Fibonacci level: 0.014000 USDT (Possible target for the next uptrend).
5️⃣ 1.0 Fibonacci Level: 0.020000 USDT (if the market continues in a strong uptrend).
📌 What do we conclude?
• If the price fails to surpass 0.008000 USDT, the market may remain sideways for a long time.
• If 0.011000 USDT is broken steadily, we may see a rise towards 0.014 - 0.020 USDT.
📊 Possible scenarios after in-depth analysis
🔴 Negative (corrective) scenario
📉 If the price fails to surpass 0.008000 USDT, we may see:
• Drop towards 0.005500 USDT.
• Breaking 0.005500 USDT may push the price towards 0.004800 - 0.004000 USDT.
🟢 Positive (bullish) scenario
📈 If 0.008500 USDT is breached, we may see:
• Rise towards 0.011000 USDT.
• If the bullish momentum continues, we may see 0.014 - 0.020 USDT in the coming months.
🔥 Recommendations and proposed strategies
📌 For the long-term investor:
✅ Buy at 0.005500 - 0.006500 USDT with stop loss below 0.004800 USDT.
✅ Waiting for confirmation of the breakout above 0.008500 USDT before entering with larger amounts.
📌 For short-term speculators:
✅ Buy at 0.006500 USDT with target 0.008000 - 0.008500 USDT.
✅ Sell at 0.008500 - 0.011000 USDT if the price does not break these levels.
📌 For trading based on Fibonacci and time waves:
✅ Waiting for 0.008500 USDT to break before opening new buy positions.
✅ If the price continues below 0.008000 USDT, it might be better to wait for a correction to 0.005500 USDT