The upward trend will not change, and the weekly and monthly lines have given clear buy signals. Patience is required to wait for the adjustment to end, after which the market will initiate a second wave of rising trends. The only thing currently supporting the holding belief is that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have entered a downward channel. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut channel opening, the RMB exchange rate will certainly decline. As long as the RMB remains stable, the A-share market will have high points. From a medium to long-term perspective, I am not pessimistic. The medium to long-term indicators have strong support. The weekly technical indicators are significantly rising, and the monthly line is also turning upward. With external conditions having expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, I remain optimistic about the upward trend of A-shares in the medium to long term, continuing to focus on buying.
In the short term, there is a need for market consolidation. The previous volume increase has exhausted the market's upward momentum, and the time for shaking and consolidation may be extended. In the short term, there is still downward momentum, and the 3300-point level is highly attractive. In a situation where the short-term direction is unclear, it is best to choose to operate with half positions. Although various hotspots are emerging in the market, the overall market remains above the ten-day and five-day lines, and the trading volume is gradually shrinking, indicating that capital is starting to stabilize and become more rational. It will be somewhat challenging to break this balance again in the short term. Above the 3300-point level, the financing amount has surged significantly, and off-market funds continue to enter, yet the overall market index still has not reacted, indicating that the short-term trend is somewhat pessimistic.
In the medium to long term, I am optimistic about an upward trend, but in the short term, I am bearish on this trend. It requires external positive factors to break the deadlock; otherwise, it will be challenging to find a direction. The financing amount has surged significantly, and off-market funds have already awakened and are rushing to enter. Institutions and funds did not react to the first wave of the rise, and the second wave is starting to increase positions continuously. However, the overall market index remains lukewarm. As the market continues to heat up, industrial capital is also increasing its reduction efforts, while obedient funds are maintaining market stability. As a result, the overall market performance is not very satisfactory.
There is a force for short selling in the market that is relentless, coupled with continuous reductions in industrial capital, creating a significant probability of short-term market downturns. I am optimistic in the medium term and bearish in the short term. For the sake of capital safety, avoid frequently changing stocks; instead, choose high-quality stocks supported by performance and hold them patiently. Short-term funds should temporarily wait and observe the market direction before entering, which is not too late.