📌 Wave analysis of BAL/USDT using Elliott theory
📉 1. Analysis of the general trend and previous waves
🔹 General trend:
• The price peaked at 75.086 USDT and then started a long-term bearish trend.
• The current price is at 1.936 USDT, indicating a sharp decline after a strong bullish wave.
• The main support is at 1.522 USDT, which represents a potential bounce area.
🔹 Moving averages:
• EMA(7) = 2.165 USDT → Price is below it, indicating short-term weakness.
• EMA(25) = 2.438 USDT → Not broken yet, which means the downtrend is still in control.
• EMA(99) = 4.520 USDT → Very far, indicating that the price is in a strong bottom for a long time.
✔ Conclusion: The price is still in a strong downtrend, but its proximity to support may mean that the corrective wave is nearing its end.
📊 2. Elliott Wave Analysis
🔹 Identifying the main waves
✅ Upward impulse wave (1-5):
• Wave 1: Starts from lows to first small peak.
• Wave 2: Slight correction downwards.
• Wave 3: The strongest bullish wave reached 75.086 USDT (top).
• Wave 4: Initial correction down, but not strong.
• Wave 5: Failure to record a new high, indicating the beginning of a major correction wave.
✅ Corrective wave (ABC):
• Wave A: Sharp drop from 75.086 USDT to below 10 USDT.
• Wave B: Weak upward attempt, but did not exceed 15 USDT.
• Wave C: Continuation of the decline towards 1.936 USDT, which may be the end of the correction or the beginning of forming a base.
✔ Conclusion: The price may be at the end of wave C, which means that a new impulse wave is likely to appear soon.
📈 3. Expected scenarios based on wave analysis
✅ Bullish scenario (if wave C has ended)
🔹 Conditions:
• The price must hold above 1.522 USDT (current support).
• Strong trading volume and an increase in bullish candles should appear.
• RSI should start rising from lows.
🔹 Possible goals:
1. 2.438 USDT (EMA 25) - First resistance level.
2. 4.520 USDT (EMA 99) - If a new uptrend starts.
3. 7.00 - 10.00 USDT if the market enters a new bullish impulse wave.
🔹 Stop loss:
• Below 1.50 USDT because breaking it means the continuation of the decline.
❌ Bearish scenario (if wave C continues to fall)
🔹 Conditions:
• Breaking 1.522 USDT with a daily close below this level.
• The price remains below 2.165 USDT and is unable to break through it.
• Continued weak trading volumes and the appearance of strong bearish candles.
🔹 Possible goals:
1. 1.50 USDT - First important support.
2. 1.20 - 1.00 USDT - Old support levels if the decline continues.
🔹 Stop loss:
• Above 2.50 USDT to avoid sudden bullish reversals.
📌 Final conclusion: Is there an opportunity to enter a trade based on the waves?
✔ Yes, the price may be at the end of wave C, which may open the way for an upward bounce soon.
✔ If the price stabilizes above 1.522 USDT and starts forming bullish highs, it could be the beginning of a new wave.
✔ Price action should be monitored over the next 48 hours to confirm the trend.
📌 🚀 Final decision:
• Wait for confirmation of the bullish breakout above 2.165 USDT before entering a buy trade.
• If 1.522 USDT is broken, there may be further downside, so caution is required!