#你看好哪一个山寨币ETF将通过？ is optimistic about doge, the reasons are as follows.

1. Regulatory environment variables

Policy shift: After the new SEC Chairman Paul Atkins (formerly a crypto compliance lawyer) took office in 2025, the regulatory attitude was significantly relaxed compared with the Gary Gensler period

Precedent breakthrough: Referring to the approval path of Bitcoin/Ethereum ETFs, the SEC's recognition of non-securities attributes is the key threshold (according to the SEC internal documents in 2024, DOGE was classified as a "payment token" category, and SOL is still in the securities recognition dispute)

2. Comparison of token characteristics

Indicator SOLDOGE

Compliance risk Responding to SEC securities litigation (expected to be closed in 2026) Not sued by the SEC

Market structure The top 10 addresses hold 28.6% of the coins (on-chain data) The top 10 addresses hold 45.2% of the coins (including exchange cold wallets)

Economic model Inflation rate 6.5%, staking income supports value Unlimited issuance (annual inflation 3.4%)

Institutional acceptance Fidelity and VanEck have submitted applications Only Valor issues European ETPs

3. Through probability deduction

SOL ETF (before Q2 2025):

Positive: CME plans to launch SOL futures contracts (ETF pricing benchmark) in Q3 2025

Negative: FTX bankruptcy estate holds 11 million SOL (accounting for 2.3% of the circulation), and the SEC believes there is a risk of market manipulation

Bloomberg analysts predict the probability of approval: 38%

DOGE ETF (before Q4 2025):

Positive: Musk's X platform plans to integrate DOGE payments, and Coinbase has launched futures contracts

Negative: The concentration of currency holdings triggers the SEC's "anti-market manipulation review clause"

Probability of approval prediction: 52% (if Musk's public support rate increases)

4. Market linkage impact

If the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETF (currently an average of US$420 million per day) continues, it will increase the SEC's tolerance for alternative currency ETFs

Key time node: SEC's initial approval opinion on VanEck SOL ETF in June 2025

Conclusion:

DOGE is more likely to be approved in 2025 than SOL, but both must meet the following requirements:

① CME establishes a sound futures market (DOGE is faster than SOL)

② The concentration of currency holdings has dropped to <span of the top 10 addresses (currently not up to standard)

③ The average daily spot trading volume remains above US$300 million (SOL is currently 180 million, DOGE is 240 million)

It is recommended to pay attention to the trend of Grayscale NEAR/STX trust products, which may be a regulatory indicator released by the SEC.