If DOGE falls below the 200DMA and the 2024 high, it could drop all the way back to the mid $0.10 range or lower.
The price of Dogecoin (DOGE) is on the verge of testing key technical levels, and depending on its response, it could have a significant impact on its mid-term outlook.
The last price was $0.2470, and DOGE is approaching a retest of its 200DMA level of $0.2360.
Since Trump launched the meme coin in mid-January, the price of Dogecoin has been on a downward trend, in line with the broader meme coin market, and its recent rejection of the 21DMA confirms its bearish inclination.
DOGE is also about to retest its 2024 high of the $0.2250 region again.
How Dogecoin's price reacts when it retests the key resistance area around $0.22-24 will be crucial for its long-term outlook.
A convincing and sustained breakout here would seriously question Dogecoin's 'bull market'.
Speculators may easily start to give up, and the price could quickly drop to the mid $0.10 range.
Alternatively, if the price sees a strong rebound, like in early February, it would indicate that the rebound over the past six months has been very strong.
Where will the price of Dogecoin go in 2025?
The current liquidity backdrop in the U.S. is not the best, with U.S. government bond yields near decades-highs, and the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle may have already ended.
In an environment of loose financial conditions, altcoins and meme coins tend to perform better, but such a scenario seems unlikely in 2025.
Therefore, a season of alt/meme coins like in 2021 is unlikely to occur this year.
However, in terms of cryptocurrency adoption, 2025 is expected to be a historic year—Trump's government, which supports cryptocurrency, may establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, and states are also taking action to build their own strategic reserves, while major altcoins may soon gain spot ETFs.
This includes Dogecoin, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has recently acknowledged Grayscale's application.
Therefore, 2025 will be an important year for Bitcoin and other major altcoins.
However, due to concerns about massive dilution (i.e., the continuous creation of new meme coins), retail investors may not flood back into names like Dogecoin as they did in the past, making the outlook for the meme coin market even more bleak.
In fact, the meme coin launched by Trump has taken a heavy toll on the broader meme coin market, including Dogecoin, as it absorbs liquidity.
Donald Trump, the President of the United States, can be said to be the most famous and recognizable person in the world, so it is unlikely that any meme coins will be launched in the future to compete with the Trump (TRUMP) token.
That is to say, in 2025, we might see a wave of celebrities, brands, and influencers launching tokens and attracting retail liquidity that in the past might have flowed into tokens like Dogecoin.
Despite Dogecoin's first-mover advantage, Elon Musk's support, and a large community indicating it will maintain a leading position in the meme coin market, this poses a clear risk to Dogecoin's price outlook in 2025.$DOGE