#FTX赔付

【FTX's Billion Dollar Compensation Arrives: An Underestimated 'Liquidity Siphon' Experiment】

FTX officially confirms that the first round of compensation will begin on February 18, 2025, with an expected asset distribution of $14.7 to $16.5 billion to creditors. 98% of creditors will receive cash compensation in USD based on the cryptocurrency price at the time of bankruptcy in November 2022 (BTC ≈ $16,000), while creditors with claims over $50,000 will need to wait for subsequent batches.

▍On-Chain Detective Perspective (Avoiding Three Major Blind Spots in Market Consensus)

'Pseudo Incremental Funds' Trap

Most of the compensation funds have already been acquired at a discount by professional bankruptcy funds (such as Cherokee Acquisition purchasing at 32% face value), with less than 30% of hot money actually flowing into the market. There is also a need to be cautious of the remaining $680 million in FTT tokens within the FTX wallet, which has a circulating market value of only $870 million; unlocking these could trigger a death spiral.

Tax Black Hole Effect

U.S. creditors will need to pay capital gains tax on the compensation amount (considered as 'debt relief income'), with some accounts facing a combined tax rate exceeding 40%, which may force holders to sell other crypto assets to cover taxes.

Market Maker Arbitrage Window

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has seen a 27% surge in open contracts for Bitcoin futures, possibly rehearsing the long-short game after the compensation arrives—professional institutions are constructing a 'spot buy + futures hedge' combination to capitalize on retail investor sentiment fluctuations.

▍Regulatory Paradigm Revolution

This cash compensation replaces the return of physical tokens, effectively establishing a precedent for 'monetization of user assets during exchange bankruptcy.' In the future, this may compel CEXs to adopt a third-party custody model similar to securities brokers, resulting in a structural increase in platform compliance costs.

▍Soul-Searching Questions

① If the U.S. IRS classifies the compensation as 'unexpected income' rather than asset return, could this trigger large-scale tax audits?

② When the liquidation price during an exchange's bankruptcy is 10 times less than the current price, should regulators be required to retain some physical assets to hedge user losses?

(Dark line hint: Pay attention to the $147 million in MAPS tokens held by FTX, which has a circulating supply that only accounts for 0.8% of FDV)

Data Anchor Point: FTX's on-chain address has a remaining asset of $1.475 billion, including 20 types of long-tail tokens.