A series of data from Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphracta, said that user interest in the crypto market in general is still at a very low level compared to the same time in the bull cycle in 2017 - 2018 or 2021 - 2022.
In the latest article by Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson, his company's data shows that the crypto market is in a strong bullish trend, but public interest has not yet returned to the level of previous bullrun cycles.
A Wikipedia view analysis chart on crypto shows that user interest has plummeted from previous peaks in 2017 and 2021. Normally, every time Bitcoin peaks, the number of searches and views on Wikipedia will increase sharply, reflecting the participation of retail investors. However, this time, even though Bitcoin is approaching a high price for a long time, the number of views is still low, indicating that the market is mainly controlled by large institutions instead of cash flows from retail.
Amount of Wikipedia documentation on crypto. Source: Alphractal
Data from 4Chan, a platform that has often seen lively discussions about crypto in previous cycles, also shows that interest is plummeting. In previous bull runs, every time Bitcoin entered the fomo phase, the number of crypto articles on 4Chan skyrocketed. However, although the market is recovering, activity on 4Chan is still low, which reflects that retail has not yet returned to the market.
The number of crypto-related posts on 4Chan. Source: Alphractal
Besides, the number of new cryptocurrencies created is increasing rapidly again after a period of stagnation. This is a common sign in every bullrun cycle, when the market recovers and new projects emerge to take advantage of the inflow of cash. However, when retail has not really returned, these projects may be being pumped by larger investment funds rather than capital inflows from retail investors.
The price of Bitcoin compared to the amount of tokens that are active in the market. Source: Alphractal
Usually, during Bitcoin's growth cycles, public interest will increase sharply on various platforms such as Wikipedia, 4Chan, Reddit, and Twitter. But current data shows that interest remains low, possibly for a variety of reasons.
This is partly because the market is being controlled by large institutions and investment funds, rather than retail investors. In addition, after the sharp market crash in 2022 with events such as the collapse of FTX, Terra, and other major projects, retail may remain cautious. Moreover, the wave of communication about crypto has not really returned as strongly as before, when not many stories of "getting rich from crypto" have been widely spread.
The number of comments on Reddit every day. Source: Alphractal
One user of the name, @SanaWhale thinks that this decline may not be a negative sign, but simply because crypto has become more popular. In other words, retailers no longer need to look for basic questions like "What is Bitcoin?" or "How does crypto work?" because this knowledge has gradually become ubiquitous. This may explain why interest on platforms like Wikipedia or Google has dropped.
JoĆ£o Wedson disagrees with this view, saying that the crypto market is still very early and if you ask the average person on the street, most still don't understand crypto. He also mentioned that the team tracked many sentiment indicators on Reddit, Telegram and YouTube, but found no plausible explanation for the decline in engagement on these platforms compared to the past.
He went on to argue that if crypto was indeed more popular, then interest on Twitter and major media outlets should have increased, but that didn't happen. In addition, the volume of on-chain transactions is also low, which raises questions about the true level of market participation. He affirmed that this is not just a matter of data, but the reality reflected through the data.
In conclusion, the crypto market is recovering strongly but retail participation is still weak, suggesting that this may only be the beginning of a bullrun cycle. Large institutions have been accumulating, while retail may only participate strongly when prices have risen higher. If history repeats itself, a strong wave of fomo is likely to come in the coming months, when Bitcoin surpasses the old peak and crypto once again becomes a hot topic in the media.