In the field of cryptocurrency investment, the market is unpredictable, and profit opportunities are quietly hidden within it. Currently, Bitcoin is maintaining a right-side oscillation trend; due to the lack of liquidity in the market over the weekend, even if the price of coins drops, it is difficult to truly reflect the market's supply and demand situation. Therefore, it is necessary to wait for the U.S. stock market to open and further assess market direction by observing buying conditions. From a broader perspective, the market is still in a volatile pattern, with average capital performance.
Looking again at the altcoin market, the overall profit effect is poor. Whether in on-chain transactions or centralized exchanges (CEX), the market is extremely dull, with no volatility or improvement. Only a few coins controlled by strong whales occasionally show unusual movements, and the overall market is currently in a weak adjustment phase, with the recovery of market confidence still needing time. It remains in a relatively sluggish 'garbage time.'
This week, five crypto projects will unlock tokens, releasing a total value of approximately $120 million. Among them, on February 17, APE will unlock approximately 15.6 million tokens (about $10.95 million), accounting for 1.56% of the total supply; on February 19, PIXEL will unlock approximately 91.18 million tokens (about $5.98 million), accounting for 1.824% of the total supply; on the same day, ENA will unlock approximately 12.86 million tokens (about $5.77 million), accounting for 0.086% of the total supply; on February 21, FTN will unlock approximately 20 million tokens (about $7.88 million), accounting for 2.0% of the total supply; also on February 21, IMX will unlock approximately 24.51 million tokens (about $1.945 million), accounting for 1.226% of the total supply. These token unlocks will undoubtedly have some impact on the market.
Looking back, the leading role of Bitcoin is crucial in every crypto cycle, with a large amount of overflow capital driving the market toward prosperity. However, two significant changes have occurred in this cycle. First, the emergence of ETFs has changed the investment landscape. Many traditional investors are building positions through ETFs, and holders like PlanB have also turned to ETFs, with data analysis showing that most current ETF holders are long-term holders. This results in very little capital overflowing from ETFs; even when there is, it is likely circulating between ETFs and the U.S. stock market, with minimal funds flowing into altcoins. Second, the impact of the monetary tightening cycle. This is significantly different from the previous three Bitcoin halving events, as Bitcoin is entering a high-interest period for the first time during an upcycle. High interest rates reduce investor risk appetite, leading more capital to flow toward 'safe-haven assets.' In the cryptocurrency field, only Bitcoin can barely be considered a 'safe-haven asset.' Therefore, on one hand, capital overflow is reduced, and on the other hand, investors are more cautious, making it difficult to fully apply past cyclical patterns.
Although the difficulty of investment in this cycle is relatively high, it is not without opportunities; it just requires patience to wait for the market trend to clarify. Currently, issues such as inflation, tariffs, whether to cut interest rates in March, and economic and employment matters have been repeatedly speculated by the market, and TGA liquidity release seems to be starting. Additionally, Trump has repeatedly called for lower interest rates, the ETH staking application has already opened, and state government Bitcoin strategic reserves are also being advanced, with the relevant processes in Arizona seemingly about to pass. The short-term uncertainties will eventually settle, and currently, both macro data and K-line trends are in a state of potential ups and downs.
In summary, the second half of the bull market is expected to continue as various uncertainties gradually dissipate. In this process, investors need to remain patient and closely monitor market dynamics in order to better seize profit opportunities in the crypto space.
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