Narrative Vacuum Period:

The core narratives of the last bull market (DeFi, NFT, GameFi) have entered the landing verification stage, while new narratives (RWA, AI, DePIN) have yet to form a consensus. This transitional phase leads to a perception of 'dryness' among users.

Case Validation:

In Q2 2023, the number of active Bitcoin addresses on-chain dropped to 500,000/day (the peak in 2021 was 1.3 million), but during the same period, the Ordinals protocol was born, quietly nurturing the seeds of 'Bitcoin Ecological Revival.'

Is there still a bull? — Key Signals and Cycle Positioning

The macro cycle has not ended:

| Indicator | Current Status | Signal Significance |

|-|--|--|

| Bitcoin ETF Net Inflow | Positive inflow for 4 consecutive weeks (as of 2024/6) | Institutional funds are still entering |

| Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy | Rate cut expectations postponed to Q4 2024 | Liquidity easing delayed but not disappeared |

| Total Stablecoin Market Cap | Breaks $160 billion (historical high) | Sufficient ammunition in the market |

On-Chain Data Reveals the Truth:

MVRV-Z Score (Market Value / Realized Value Ratio): The current value is 1.8, lower than the peak of 4.5 in 2021, indicating that the market is still in a mid-term upward channel and has not yet reached a frenzy stage.

Exchange BTC Holdings: Proportion has dropped to 11.7% (the lowest since 2020), indicating that holders are more inclined to hoard rather than trade, and the supply contraction effect continues.

3. Why is there a '2-year window'? — Dual Catalysis of Technology and Regulation

Technology Iteration Critical Point:

Ethereum: The Verkle Trees upgrade at the end of 2024 will achieve stateless verification, paving the way for millions of TPS; L2 (Arbitrum, zkSync) will fully enter the decentralized phase in 2025.

Solana: After the launch of the Firedancer client, the target TPS is raised to 1 million, and with compliance tools (such as Lighthouse KYC), it may open up traditional financial scenarios.

Bitcoin: Layer2 ecology (BitVM, RGB++) will achieve complex smart contracts within 2 years, breaking the shackles of 'limited to value storage.'

Regulatory Framework Implementation:

After the US elections (2025), the cryptocurrency bill is highly likely to pass, clarifying token classification and exchange compliance rules, eliminating policy uncertainty.

Hong Kong and Singapore are accelerating the issuance of licenses, attracting Asian funds into the market, forming a dual center pattern of East and West.

4. How can ordinary people grasp the 'last window period'? — Level Three Rocket Strategy

Key Operation Points:

Use dollar-cost averaging to smooth volatility (such as investing 10% of principal every month) to avoid chasing highs and cutting losses.

Level Two: Ecological Dividend Capture (2024-2025)

Solana: Participate in DePIN project hardware mining (such as Hivemapper dashcams), and interact with airdrop expectation protocols (such as Kamino, Parcl).

Ethereum: Layout L2 ecological governance tokens (such as STRK, ARB) and participate in Restaking derivatives (such as EigenLayer AVS nodes).

Bitcoin: Run Ordinals nodes to obtain BRC-20 token airdrops and participate in Stacks staking mining.

Level Three: Extreme Market Hedging (2025-2026)

Go long on volatility: Buy Bitcoin call options (due December 2025, strike price $100,000).

Black Swan Protection: Allocate 5% of your position to short ETFs (such as BITI) or inverse perpetual contracts.

5. Psychological Construction: Maintain composure amid noise.

Reject 'carving the boat to seek the sword':

Every bull market is driven by new assets + new groups. The 'old investors' of 2021 may miss the Meme wave of 2024, simply because they are obsessed with past narratives.

Quantitative Sentiment Indicators:

When Google searches for 'how to buy cryptocurrency' break previous highs and Coinbase tops the App Store charts, be cautious of top signals; when Reddit's crypto section sees a 30% decline in daily active users and negative posts account for over 60%, it may be the time to bottom out.

Case Insights:

At the beginning of 2023, when SOL fell to $8, the community was filled with 'zeroing out' theories, but reverse layout players achieved 25 times returns in 2024. The market always reborn in despair and collapses in revelry.

Summary: The dry period is the paradise for treasure hunters.

The 'dryness' of the industry is not a recession, but a hibernation period for the birth of new species. Just like the DeFi protocols quietly emerged in 2019 and exploded in 2021, the current tracks of RWA, AI Agent, on-chain games, etc., are gathering energy. Remember: Most people perceive the bull market when they often miss the best entry period. Staying sensitive to on-chain data (such as Santiment's holding distribution) and tracking technological evolution (such as GitHub developer activity), and decisively betting when others hesitate is the ultimate rule to transcend cycles.

'The Spring Festival has already arrived,' but the real feast often quietly begins when the firecrackers start to sound sporadically.