Yesterday, I warned that BTC and the overall market would have some corrections, and they did. But overall, it is still a consolidation. At this stage, some institutions are already bearish, so try to reduce the risk. This article is just a personal review and does not constitute any investment advice. #阿根廷总统MEME币争议
Let me talk about the conclusion first, followed by news and technical analysis:
Regarding BTC: It is predicted to consolidate between 94,000 and 99,000. The market is tense and there is no clear direction.
Regarding BNB: It is expected to consolidate between 640-690. It is not very risky to hold a certain position, and the airdrop is expected to be soon.
For ETH: It is expected to fluctuate around 2500-2900. The current weak trend continues. If ETH cannot hold $2570, the next key support level may be $2200.
Altcoins, Solana, Ripple, and other major coins mainly fluctuate with Bitcoin. It is normal for them to drop more than BTC. During this phase of adjustment, many investors will switch back to BTC for hedging.
Altcoin season index: This index shows that in the past 90 days, about 38 projects among the top 100 by market capitalization have outperformed BTC, one more than yesterday. Altcoin sentiment is weak, and no signs of an altcoin season have been observed yet.
From a news perspective, Argentine President Milei has been accused of promoting the cryptocurrency LIBRA and is facing fraud lawsuits. Milei denies knowledge and claims innocence, and the government has launched an investigation. Bitcoin has flowed out of derivative exchanges and into spot exchanges, indicating a decrease in market risk appetite, possibly entering a bear market. However, some opinions suggest that prices may rebound after global liquidity increases, depending on US macroeconomic policy. Solana DEX trading volume has declined, with a volume of $2.517 billion on February 16, the lowest since mid-December last year. Among them, Raydium and Orca's trading volume fell significantly, while Meteora's increased.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From BTC's candlestick chart, it is still in narrow consolidation, waiting for a new major trend.
2. Greed and fear index observation: Currently at 51, which is within the neutral range, indicating a state of ambivalence between bulls and bears.
3. BTC perpetual contract funding rate is 0.0072%, ETH is 0.0063%. These two data points should be observed closely; a sudden drop could lead to a significant decline.
4. Observe the maximum pain point of options within the next three months; within three days, it is at 96,000, which has little impact. At the end of March, there is a maximum pain point at 85,000 with a nominal amount of 10.3 billion that needs attention.
5. Spot ETFs observation: US stock market is closed on weekends, observe again on Monday.
6. According to the RSI (Relative Strength Index), the 24-hour indicators show: Litecoin, BNB, BTC, ETH, and altcoins are neutral, while altcoins and Solana are weak. Other mainstream and altcoins are roughly split between neutral and weak.
7. From the peak escape index, it is currently at a moderate level, positioned somewhat lower than the middle.
8. The BTC hoarding index is at 1.16, suitable for regular investment in hoarding coins.
Although it is still in sideways consolidation, other coins have generally dropped more than BTC. A further decline could trigger other coins to exchange for BTC as a hedge. Additionally, the S&P has also been at a relatively high point these days, so it is safer to reduce long leverage. In terms of operations, try to exchange more for BTC when possible.