Referring to the DeFi summer trend from June to September 2020, I found that during that time, old altcoins like LTC, XRP, and BCH all experienced declines of over 20%. This is actually one of my current speculations—one of the reasons for the recent slump in the altcoin market is the intensified competition for on-chain liquidity, but this actually helps complete the necessary clearing before the bull market.
Looking back at the last round of altcoin bull market, we can see that in the three months after the DeFi summer trend gradually cooled down in September 2020, the market experienced a rebound, which lasted nearly half a year until December 2020 to early May 2021.
The climax of this market round should come after large-scale liquidation events, such as the Trump coin issuance and the second liquidation event of Milei, which triggered an on-chain frenzy. The popularity of projects like Solana also gradually cooled down after the Milei event. At this point, the secondary market has also completed sufficient turnover.
I expect that the bull market in the secondary market may start around March to May, lasting for about half a year, and ending around August to October.
This period should be an important window for the market.
