Recently, there has been frequent information of this nature appearing. Some analysts believe that the cryptocurrency market has shown all typical top signals, meaning this cycle's bull market has peaked.
The most frequently mentioned signals can be summarized in the following points.
Sentiment aspect: Celebrities are beginning to utilize their popularity to issue personal coins (Trump family coin), and market sentiment has already risen in November 2024.
Data aspect: The overall market share of Bitcoin and various index indicators, such as rainbow charts and moving averages.
Macroeconomic aspect: There is little hope for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025. It is believed that without rate cuts, the market lacks liquidity, and despite good news, the market's rise has not been substantial, making it difficult to expect significant positive news in the future.
Changes in the cryptocurrency industry: Due to institutional entry, it may affect the cryptocurrency bull and bear cycles. The number of altcoins in this bull market has already exceeded 36.4 million, which is too many and has diluted the number of participants and capital. The altcoin bull market may not exist.
The above is organized from four aspects, which are commonly believed to indicate that this round of the bull market has peaked, and the reasons for not meeting expectations.
Among them, there are a few points that are unsustainable.
First, celebrities issuing coins does not necessarily mean it is at the peak of a bull market, as this is filled with randomness or certain interests. Additionally, some celebrities are merely riding the wave of popularity, while others create heat. The market sentiment from January to March 2024 is also very high, but it still did not affect the significant rise in November 2024.
Second, the indicators from the data aspect, such as various processed data from moving averages, have a serious drawback: they are very lagging. If one uses this to judge the peak, they may have already been trapped long ago. If one uses this to judge the bottom, it usually only forms after the price has already risen.
Third, the macro aspect involves policy, which relates to the game between nations and affects more than just cryptocurrency, including traditional manufacturing, trade, foreign exchange, and various other aspects. Political discourse is an art; it is never as simple as what ordinary people think, where one plus one equals two.
Based on the above three points, a rigorous examination shows that they are all unsustainable.
The truth is often hidden in countless threads; there is only one truth we seek, while the others are mere illusions. Therefore, we still need to return to the essence and seek the source.
If I hadn't learned how to judge bull and bear cycles in the Sancai system, I would be very confused at this moment, struggling countless times, wondering whether the market will rise or fall, fearing a crash, fearing to miss out, and fearing to be trapped.
The potential dragon strategy I learned at Sancai has allowed me to witness time and again, the judgment of the 312 crash at the beginning of 2020, the determination that the bull market peaked in April 2021 avoiding the 519 crash, the start of the bear market in November 2021, the bear market peak in November 2022, and the subsequent firm belief that the bull market has not ended in 2023 and 2024...
Having a clear direction in the cryptocurrency space is a rare peace of mind. I can sleep well, hold good coins, and I know that I have this ability and technology in the crypto space, which is not just about making money in a wave of market trends.
Many friends may wonder, what method or technique is used for judgment?
If it is merely a single indicator or data point, it is like trying to catch a sword in a boat, framing yourself and the market within limits; anything beyond that becomes incomprehensible.
The technique I learned is to return to the essence, to find the source. News can be true or false, but the K-line and volume on the chart are the most real, represented by real money transactions. If you learn to read the chart, you'll know the direction of the major players and won't be confused by the news.
In every round of a bull market, the development of industries and the broader economic environment will change. This cannot be compared to the past, but what remains unchanged are the laws of the financial market and the weaknesses of human nature.
In a constantly changing market, we should learn those unchanging technical principles.
Like a farmer who has completely mastered the skills of planting crops, regardless of the weather this year or what crops are planted, he can handle it skillfully.
Because the essence of methods has become difficult to master, methods can change flexibly, but the core thinking has not changed.
Investing is the same; when you learn and acquire the ability to make money in the financial market, nothing seems unusual. Year after year, as your experience accumulates, you earn more steadily and increasingly.
The earlier you begin to realize this and take action, the more you are surpassing other retail investors. This is why you earn while others lose.
