As of **February 13, 2025**, Japan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is under close scrutiny due to rising inflation and its implications for monetary policy. Below is a detailed breakdown of upcoming CPI data, recent trends, and market expectations:

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#### **1. Next CPI Release Schedule**

- **January 2025 CPI Data**:

- **Release Date**: **February 21, 2025** (for national CPI) .

- **Preliminary Tokyo CPI (January 2025)**: Already released on **January 31, 2025**, showing a **3.4% YoY increase** (up from 3.0% in December 2024) .

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#### **2. Recent Inflation Trends**

- **December 2024 CPI**:

- **Headline Inflation**: **3.6% YoY** (up from 2.9% in November), driven by surging food prices (+6.4%) and energy costs (electricity +18.7%, gas +5.6%) .

- **Core Inflation (ex-food)**: Rose to **3.0% YoY**, matching consensus and marking a 16-month high .

- **Monthly CPI Increase**: **0.6%**, the highest in 14 months .

- **2024 Annual Average CPI**: **108.5** (2020=100), with December 2024 reaching a record **110.70 points** .

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#### **3. Key Drivers of Inflation**

1. **Food and Energy Costs**:

- Food prices rose **6.4% YoY** in December 2024, the steepest increase in a year, led by fresh vegetables and seafood .

- Energy subsidies expired in May 2024, causing electricity (+18.7%) and gas prices (+5.6%) to spike .

2. **Weak Yen and Import Prices**:

- The yen’s depreciation has increased import costs, contributing to inflation in goods like clothing (+2.9%) and furniture (+3.0%) .

3. **Services and Housing**:

- Recreation (+4.0%) and healthcare (+1.7%) saw notable price hikes, while housing costs remained stable (+0.8%) .

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#### **4. Forecasts and Market Expectations**

- **Q1 2025 Inflation**:

- Expected to moderate slightly to **3.2%** (Trading Economics forecast), with easing energy prices offsetting persistent food inflation .

- **Long-Term Projections**:

- **2025 Annual CPI**: Forecasted to average **111.77 points** (up from 108.5 in 2024) .

- **2026 Inflation Rate**: Projected to stabilize near **2.5%**, aligning with the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s target .

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#### **5. Implications for Monetary Policy**

- **BOJ Rate Hike Speculation**:

- Sustained inflation above 3% has increased pressure on the BOJ to tighten policy. Markets now price in a **60% chance of a rate hike by June 2025** .

- The BOJ’s focus will be on wage growth and whether inflation becomes demand-driven (vs. cost-push) .

- **Market Reactions**:

- A hotter-than-expected January CPI could weaken the yen further (USD/JPY currently near **148**), while a softer print might delay BOJ action .

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### **Key Takeaways**

- **Next CPI Release**: February 21, 2025 (January data). Watch for signals on energy/food inflation trends.

- **Risks**: Geopolitical tensions, yen volatility, and wage negotiations in spring 2025 will shape inflation persistence.

- **BOJ Policy**: A January CPI above **3.5%** could accelerate rate-hike timelines, impacting equities and bond markets.

For real-time updates, refer to the [Statistics Bureau of Japan](https://www.stat.go.jp) or [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com).

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