$BTC

$BTC :
Current Market State: $95,174.02
Date: February 12, 2025
Key Technical Indicators:
- RSI: 39.94 (Bearish momentum)
- MACD: -1,216.99 (Strong bearish signal)
- MA Alignment: Bearish (MA7 < MA20 < MA50)
- Volume: 13,103 BTC (48% below 20-period average)
- Buy/Sell Ratio: 0.44 (Strong selling pressure)
Order Book Analysis:
- Imbalance: 0.39 (Moderate buy pressure)
- Significant Bid Wall: 132.33 BTC
- Significant Ask Wall: 58.09 BTC
- Market Depth Ratio: 0.91 (Slightly reduced liquidity)
Futures Data:
- Funding Rate: 0.0001 (Slightly positive)
- Open Interest: 80,382 BTC (High)
- Liquidation Status: Balanced between longs/shorts
Scenario Analysis:
1. Bearish Continuation (60% probability)
- Targets: $94,500 → $93,500 → $92,500
- Confirmation: Break below $95,000 with volume
- Invalidation: Break above $97,400
2. Sideways Consolidation (30% probability)
- Range: $94,500 - $96,500
- Characterized by declining volume
3. Bullish Reversal (10% probability)
- Trigger: Break above $96,500
- Targets: $97,000 → $98,500
Trading Recommendation:
- Strategy: Futures trading with 2-3x leverage
- Position Size: 5% of portfolio
- Entry Zones:
* Primary: $95,800-96,200
* DCA: $96,500 and $97,000
- Risk Management:
* Stop Loss: $97,400
* Take Profits: $94,500 (40%), $93,500 (40%), $92,500 (20%)
* Risk:Reward = 1:2.5
Key Risk Factors:
1. Strong bid wall support at $94,000-95,000
2. Short squeeze potential due to order book imbalance
3. Low volume environment
4. Weekend volatility risk
Monitoring Points:
- Volume surges above 30,000 BTC
- RSI crossing 45/35 levels
- Order book imbalance changes
- Funding rate shifts
- Break of key support/resistance levels
Trade Management Rules:
- Use limit orders only
- Scale in at predetermined levels
- Move stop to break-even after TP1
- Maximum drawdown limit: 3% of account
- Exit if price stays flat for 4 hours
The overall market structure suggests a bearish continuation is most likely, but requires proper position sizing and risk management due to potential volatile move.