๐โโ๏ธ Hey guys.
๐ US core consumer inflation, year on year rose to 3% vs market expectations of 2.9%.
๐ This has raised market concerns about the US Fed canceling rate cuts in 25Y. Which in turn reduces investors' appetite for risk.
๐ But what is happening in reality? If we look at the probabilities being prorated by speculators via federal funds futures, we see that probabilities have realigned. We see that the market is pricing in that the rate will be left unchanged at the March and May meeting. And already at the June and July meeting expect a cut with 33 and 37% probabilities for the first cut, and already from the September meeting the probabilities of a double rate cut are emerging.
๐ Locally for the market this is a negative. But in March we will see another inflation data and the probabilities may rearrange again.
โ Don't forget that macro data is important for the cryptocurrency market, but also the market is influenced by other events and news and I expect more positive news in the near future.
๐ก Bitcoin and ether have shed to supports, there could be a decline further down, so it is important to expect bearish momentum absorption, for bitcoin it is a return above 96K and ether above 2650$.
๐๏ธ Key supports for bitcoin 90-92K and for ethereum $2200-2400.
