BTC and the overall market are moving rather sluggishly, similar to yesterday's assessment. There are no highlights in the overall market; it is still in a consolidation phase. Currently, the influence of the U.S. stock market has decreased somewhat. Future market trends can be re-evaluated. This article is merely a personal review and does not constitute any investment advice.#山寨季何时到来？
First, the conclusion is stated, followed by news and technical analysis:
Regarding BTC: it is predicted to adjust between 94000-99000, with consolidation likely below 90000 as the main market trend in the near term, waiting for new positive news to boost prices.
Regarding BNB: it is expected to consolidate between 590-640. The Binance Chain has recently undergone several upgrades, which are notable.
Regarding ETH: it is expected to fluctuate around 2400-2800, with a weak trend. A large number of institutions buying in doesn't seem to have created much ripple.
Dogecoin, Solana, and Ripple are mainly fluctuating with Bitcoin. Solana is worth looking forward to, as it is likely that an ETF will be released soon. Dogecoin is experiencing a downtrend and hasn't hit the bottom yet; avoid it if you haven't touched it.
Altcoin season index: this index shows that in the past 90 days, about 41 of the top 100 projects by market capitalization have outperformed BTC, a significant increase from yesterday, indicating a recovery in altcoin sentiment.
In terms of news, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the altcoin market: Fed Chairman Powell is skeptical about further rate cuts this year, and the altcoin market is responding mildly without mass sell-offs. The market may have digested the expectation of maintaining interest rates. Meanwhile, the number of active addresses for most altcoins is still below the 2021 peak, and retail traders have not yet returned in large numbers. Fed Chairman Powell has ruled out central bank digital currency: Powell stated that it is impossible to launch a central bank digital currency. SEC cryptocurrency regulatory agenda: SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce indicated that the SEC might wait for Senate confirmation of the new chairman before deciding on the cryptocurrency regulatory agenda. Currently, Mark Uyeda is the acting chairman, and newly nominated Commissioner Paul Atkins is pending confirmation. The SEC has recently requested delays in multiple cases, indicating that the cryptocurrency regulatory framework is still being adjusted.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From the BTC candlestick chart, the daily line is still in a box pattern, within a descending channel, with a continued struggle between bulls and bears.
2. Greed and fear index observation: currently at 46, which is 3 more than yesterday, falling within the neutral range. In a bull market, this range won't last long.
3. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is 0.0073%, and for ETH, it is 0.0050%, close to yesterday's levels, nearing normal levels.
4. Observing the maximum pain points of options in the next three months, within three days in the range of 97000-99000, the impact is minimal. At the end of March, there is a maximum pain point of 10.1 billion nominal amount at 85000 that needs attention.
5. Spot ETFs observation: BTC decreased by 582 yesterday, while ETH increased by 4736.
6. Looking at the RSI relative strength index, BTC, BNB, and Solana are neutral in the past 24 hours, while ETH, Dogecoin, Dogecoin, and Ripple are weak. Most other mainstream and altcoins have fallen to oversold and weak levels, with market selling pressure low.
7. From the peak escape index, it is currently in a moderately low position.
8. The BTC holding index is at 1.17, suitable for regular investment in holding coins.
Without significant positive news, don't expect an impossible crash. Prolonged consolidation often leads to a decline; remain vigilant. During sideways trading, it is advisable to engage in some quantitative trading. Always reserve for a 10-20% pullback scenario.
