Is a crash in the US stock market likely in the near future?
There is a high probability that the US stock market will crash by 2025. The reasons are as follows:
1. When everyone thinks a crash is impossible, it is time for a crash. There is no stock market in this world that will not crash.
2. The US stock market has been on an upward trend for 16 years since the 2008 financial crisis, which is quite a long period.
3. The US economy has issues; the massive monetary easing in recent years has led to inflation. The surge in the stock market is closely related to the monetary easing during the pandemic. Based on the election results, ordinary people are dissatisfied with the economy. Both unemployment rate and salary estimates are not good. Therefore, the Federal Reserve is in a dilemma: lowering interest rates raises inflation, while raising interest rates increases unemployment.
It is now very likely that the situation resembles that before the 2008 financial crisis, marked by final madness and prosperity.
Because I do not live in the US, my analysis may be biased.