#币安HODLer空投LAYER #美国加征关税 #比特币国家战略储备 $BTC
**1. Technical side: 4-hour chart key support game**
- **Pattern Break**: BTC formed a "descending wedge" on the 4-hour chart and fell below the $102,000 support in early trading today, but the RSI (4H) touched 32 (close to the oversold range), and there may be a rebound demand in the short term.
- **Key Level**: If the rebound fails to hold $105,000 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level), the next support could be $98,000 (200-day moving average).
**2. On-chain data: whale disagreements intensify**
- **Exchange News**: Binance's Bitcoin taker buying volume reached US$9.5 billion in the past 24 hours, the highest since December 2024, but the exchange's reserves continued to decline to 540,000 (a decrease of 12% from January), indicating that some investors bought on dips and transferred to cold wallets.
- **Miner selling pressure**: The net outflow of miner addresses was 18,000 BTC within 7 days, and the selling volume increased by 40% month-on-month, which may be related to the risk aversion sentiment caused by the recent breakthrough of the US dollar index above 108.
**3. Focus of the long and short game**
- **Macro Suppression**: The US dollar index (DXY) rose to 108.8, a new high since 2025. Risk assets are generally under pressure, but the negative correlation between BTC and DXY has weakened recently, showing independent resistance to declines.
- **ETF fund flows**: BlackRock IBIT had a net inflow of US$120 million yesterday, marking the third consecutive day of fund inflows, which may be one of the bottom signals.
🚨 Strategic Advice
- **Holders**: If the rebound does not break 105,000, it is recommended to reduce positions and set a stop loss of 99,000 US dollars (previous low of the daily line).
- **Short sellers**: Place orders in batches in the range of US$98,000-100,000, and the rebound target is 108,000 (upper edge of the wedge).
- **Risk Warning**: Beware of the long-term threat of quantum computing and the risk of a policy shift by the Federal Reserve warned by Matrixport.
Data reference and logical support**
-Technical analysis: A rebound often accompanies the breakout of a descending wedge. Combined with the oversold RSI, the short-term battle between long and short positions intensifies.
On-chain signals: The contradiction between the surge in exchange buying and the decline in reserves reflects market divergence, but the proportion of long-term holders has risen to 65% (on-chain activity model), supporting the medium-term bullish logic.
- Macro correlation: The decoupling of the US dollar index and BTC may be due to institutions hedging currency risks through ETFs. We need to continue to observe the flow of funds.
Note: The above analysis is based on the integration of public data. Please consider your personal risk preferences when making actual operations.
