Today is the tenth day of the Lunar New Year. I originally thought about visiting the Temple Fair at Ditan or Chaoyang Park, but it seems like there's no point. Let's just chat simply about the market these past few days.
Coincidentally, yesterday was also Vitalik Buterin's birthday (January 31, 1994). I noticed that the group was discussing ETH a lot. Of course, it’s not to celebrate Vitalik’s birthday. Due to ETH’s price performance, it seems that people’s titles for this Ethereum founder have changed: V God - V Boy - V Dog - V Hound.
For a period of time, many people have been FUDing Ethereum, and 'Ethereum' seems to have become 'Ethereum pit'. Recently, the questions coming in frequently still target the price of ETH. For example, some partners ask: I can't hold on anymore; should I swap ETH for SOL? Others might ask: How high do you think the price of ETH can go?...
From my personal observation, many partners seem to dislike reading articles and prefer to jump straight in with various questions, hoping to get corresponding effective solutions. In fact, if you often read our articles, you would know that we have always been quite optimistic about Ethereum's long-term development.
Here are a few recent examples from articles:
In the article from January 14, we mentioned: Personally, I still remain optimistic about Ethereum. Not to mention its long-term prospects, after all, ETH is currently the only cryptocurrency, apart from BTC, that has been approved for a spot ETF. Perhaps we need to continue to be a bit patient with Ethereum. Currently, ETH remains second only to BTC. As long as Ethereum can find a new balance in L2 expansion and other narrative waves, then price will naturally not be an issue. Let the bullets fly a bit longer.
In the article from January 16, we mentioned: If the Trump administration can indeed introduce favorable policies for cryptocurrencies, it may pave the way for further prosperity in the crypto market. At the same time, if staking is allowed under regulation this year, it would be a positive development for the currently lackluster ETH and would further revive and develop DeFi.
In the article from January 21, we mentioned: We continue to be optimistic about Ethereum's performance; $4,000 is likely not the endpoint of ETH's current bull market.
Of course, if you still really don't know how to choose, there's a simple way: just hold both ETH and SOL. Only children do multiple-choice questions; adults take them all. The premise is to manage the proportion of funds according to your position and risk preference.
Many people like to compare, for example, directly comparing their ability to make money with others. Seeing someone earn millions of dollars in a day from shitcoins makes them think they can do it too. Similarly, some people like to directly compare the price increases of two projects (tokens), believing that the one with a larger price increase is a good project, while the one with a smaller increase is a garbage project.
If we just compare ETH and SOL, in terms of return on investment and relative valuation, ETH is indeed lagging behind SOL significantly.
Moreover, in this cycle, ETH has only increased about four times from around $800 to now, while SOL has risen about thirty times from around $8 to now.
But is SOL really better than ETH?
Strictly speaking, neither ETH nor SOL is perfect. In terms of speed, SOL is faster than ETH; in terms of cost, SOL is cheaper than ETH. However, in terms of security and stability, ETH is better than SOL.
Currently, the on-chain activity and transaction volume of SOL are indeed quite good, and new projects are explosively deployed like bamboo shoots after rain, especially meme coin projects (tokens). However, if you monitor them seriously, you may find that many projects deployed on the SOL chain may declare dead or go to zero within days or weeks. Now, trying to make big money on this chain is like a high-end PVP final match.
Although there are similar situations on the ETH chain, relatively speaking, the situation is much milder.
The development of things always goes through stages. We cannot only see the climax and ignore the mess that may follow. For projects that hope for long-term development and stable operation, ETH still appears to be the best choice.
It's still the same thing; it mainly depends on whether you want to speculate or invest, whether you want to make quick money or slow money. If you like to speculate, you can certainly participate in various on-chain PVP events and compete to see who enters early and runs fast. But if you are pursuing a more long-term investment outcome, you shouldn't focus solely on the current price. As long as the fundamentals of the corresponding project remain, just hold on and wait for opportunities.
Or, if you still don't know what to do, you can look at how WorldLibertyFi (WLFI), supported by the Trump family, is doing: According to the monitored public wallet address, WLFI has also been consistently buying ETH recently, with around 50% of their holdings being ETH, as shown in the image below.
If you think WLFI is not enough, take a look at BlackRock, which reportedly bought 24,529 Ethereum today (February 1). As shown in the image below.
You might not think ETH is worth it, but institutions like WLFI and BlackRock are buying it up. You always feel that BTC is expensive and don't want to buy it, but MicroStrategy keeps buying it, as shown in the image below.
In short, institutions are leaving the obvious major opportunities alone and instead listening to some bloggers or KOLs online, betting on those garbage coins or shitcoins they don't understand at all. In the end, when they lose money or it goes to zero, they attribute it to bad luck or not running fast enough. What else can we say?
Recently, various institutions and celebrities have been launching their own meme coins, especially TRUMP, which seems to have become a topic of discussion among many elderly people during the Spring Festival. On one hand, this may mean that many elderly people will enter the market and lose their savings and retirement money. On the other hand, this is a good thing for the crypto market, as it means more liquidity is being injected.
As of the time of writing, the total market value of stablecoins in the crypto market has surpassed $206 billion, particularly having increased by $38 billion since Trump announced his victory (November 2024). From this perspective, the current market remains overall healthy, indicating that funds continue to flow into the crypto market.
From the perspective of the market, we will continue to maintain the positive view expressed in previous articles and are optimistic about this year's overall performance and potential opportunities. However, higher positions also mean greater risks. It is not a bear market now, but we must be prepared for a bear market in advance, just as we prepared for a new bull market in 2022. We tentatively plan to reconsider a new cycle of regular investment plans in 2026.
Any transaction carries certain risks; there is nothing in the investment field that guarantees a 100% profit. What we can do is continuously optimize our strategies to increase our chances of making money (win rate). Additionally, while making money, we must also consider the possibility of losing money. For instance, before I take any action, I habitually list two plans (Plan A, Plan B) to ensure I can hold onto my profits and can afford my losses. This is what is meant by proper position and risk management. The most challenging aspect of a bull market is not making money but rather keeping it.
Also, don't forget the phrase we've repeated many times in previous articles. For most people, the two most important basic principles of investing are: protect your principal and avoid things you don't understand.
$ETH $BTC $SOL
