This weekend, the cryptocurrency market is still quite lively, mainly related to the Bian chain. CZ's remarks have sparked a surge in TST, which in turn triggered a wave of growth in BNB. Overall, the market is experiencing normal fluctuations, and it is still waiting for direction; how might it develop next? This article serves as personal reflection and does not constitute any investment advice.
Let’s first state the conclusion, followed by news and technical analysis:
Regarding BTC: The prediction is for adjustments between 94,000 and 99,000.
Regarding BNB: It is expected to consolidate between 610 and 670, with enthusiasm driven by TST performing better than airdrops. Those holding a lot of BNB can exchange some for BTC at highs for risk aversion.
Regarding ETH: It is expected to fluctuate around 2400-2800, with a weak trend.
The Guobi, Sol, and Ripe Wave are all rising, mainly following the direction of Bitcoin's fluctuations. The Chuan coin is in a downward trend, and the current issue with Chuan coin is who can call the shots; it's unlikely that Chuan himself can make such calls.
The altcoin season index shows that in the past 90 days, approximately 32 projects among the top 100 market cap coins have outperformed BTC, three more than yesterday. There is still no hope for altcoin season in the short term.
In terms of news, the B3 Brazilian Stock Exchange will launch BTC options and ETH and SOL futures contracts, expanding the range of cryptocurrency products. According to Odaily Planet Daily, Indian media reports that 'Dogecoin' is no longer a 'joke currency' thanks to Musk's support, with its market capitalization expected to reach hundreds of billions by January 2025. Meme coins are thriving due to celebrity effects. Former President Trump launched a meme coin featuring his image and slogan, and its market cap soared to tens of billions; however, it has faced criticism for market volatility and lack of regulation. Investors face the risk of property loss. Research from JPMorgan shows an increase in investment proportions among those under 40, as cryptocurrencies attract investment due to low barriers and quick returns. The future development of the meme coin market remains to be seen, with a need for enhanced regulation and investor education.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From the BTC K-line perspective, the daily line is still in a box shape, waiting for a new direction to emerge between bulls and bears.
2. Observing the greed and fear index: Currently at 46, which falls within a neutral range; this range will not last too long.
3. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is 0.0037%, while ETH is 0.0023%. The bulls are slightly better than yesterday, and ETH is performing better than BTC.
4. Observing the maximum pain point for options in the next three months, within three days at 97,000, which has little impact. At the end of March, there is a maximum pain point of 103 billion nominal amounts at 85,000 that needs attention.
5. Observing spot ETFs: trading was halted over the weekend; further observation will be on Monday.
6. From the RSI relative strength index, BTC, BNB, Ripe Wave, and Sol are neutral over the last 24 hours, while ETH, Chuan coin, and Guobi are in a weak position. Most other mainstream and altcoins have fallen into oversold and weak territories, with low market selling pressure.
7. From the peak escape index, it is currently in the middle to lower range, a moderate position.
8. The BTC holding index is at 1.20, which is basically suitable for regular investment in holding coins.
When the market has no obvious heat, some small coins might bring about very short-lived excitement, like TST, but everyone should recall the situation with Chuan coin to avoid being trapped or exploded.