It has been nearly a week since the last extreme market turmoil. The information and data presented on the charts these days have pointed out new trends for us. In the face of variables, we must also accept the market status and adjust our response strategies.
This article will first analyze the current situation and potential possibilities of BTC and altcoins representing ETH, and then we will compare the impact of BTC and altcoin market value trends on the altcoin season.
BTC VS ETH Price Situation
$BTC
Looking at this current chart, BTC is undoubtedly still running in the lavender box. Since the market turmoil 4 days ago, the recovery is very slow. The fear and greed index of the market has fallen to 39, which has made the entire market lose momentum. We seem to be afraid of falling.
Judging from the current candles, a W double bottom may be formed and then go up. Due to the lack of momentum, I see two possibilities for the upward path:
First, the blue path-the price successfully breaks through the resistance price, about 108K
Second, the pink path-if this sprint is unsuccessful and falls back into the shock zone, then this shock may be extended, and there is a certain possibility of extending for 2 months, which may bring momentum to the altcoin. Why do you say that? Please continue reading.
$ETH
From the current chart, ETH and most altcoins have formed a downward sloping channel. The market is so tangled. Every analyst is waiting for the price to break through the resistance price, but the market lacks momentum and has no motivation to break out, so it always falls back into the channel.
ETH also has two possible paths:
First, the blue route - the price breaks through the resistance price upward, and the short-term target can be temporarily seen at $3,000;
Second, the pink route - if after 4 to 5 days, the price falls back into the shock zone, then the shock period will be extended for nearly 2 weeks, and the price may break out of the shock zone at the end of February.
BTC VS Altcoin Market Value Trend
Before talking about the market value of the two, let's take a look at the rough comparison chart I made:
I only selected the market value trends of BTC and altcoins from February 2020 to the present, and roughly marked some key points
First, from around February 20, 2020 to around June 14, 2021, the market value of BTC was declining, while the market value of altcoins was rising;
Second, from around May 14, 2021 to around June 3, 2023, the market value of BTC was fluctuating, while the altcoin formed a second rising wave, and then fell into fluctuations;
Third, from around June 3, 2023 to now, the market value of BTC has been slowly climbing, while the altcoin has gone out of the fluctuation and produced two rising waves
What does this mean?
The market value trends of BTC and altcoins are roughly opposite, that is, when the market value of BTC rises, the market value of altcoins falls or fluctuates; when the market value of BTC falls or fluctuates, the market value of altcoins rises. This rule is the general direction.
If you don't get what I'm saying, let's take a look at this chart again, it should be clearer:
The BTC market value is the conspicuous yellow line, and the altcoin market value trend is the green and blue lines. Can you clearly see that the BTC yellow line and the altcoin green line are in opposite directions?
Now, the market value of BTC is generally rising, and the market value of altcoins is far lower than that of BTC. Therefore, if the volatility period of BTC is extended or reduced, the market value of altcoins will rise.
Happy trading !
