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VanEck Predicts Solana (SOL) to Hit $520 by 2025
VanEck, a globally recognized investment management firm with over 70 years of experience in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), has set an ambitious price target for Solana (SOL). In a post on X dated January 6, the New York-based firm projected that Solana’s price could reach $520 by 2025.
The Basis for VanEck’s Prediction
VanEck’s forecast is based on Solana’s growing dominance in the smart contract platform (SCP) sector and the historical correlation between the overall cryptocurrency market size and the expansion of the U.S. M2 money supply. According to the firm:
"Our 2025 Solana price target is $520. We evaluate Solana (SOL) based on its expected year-end smart contract platform (SCP) market share. The U.S. M2 money supply growth has shown a strong correlation with crypto market capitalization, so we use it to forecast SCP market value."
The firm projects that M2, which includes cash, bank deposits, and liquid financial assets, will reach $22.3 trillion by the end of 2025, growing at an annual rate of 3.2% from its October 2023 low. Based on regression analysis, VanEck estimates:
M2 to grow to $22.3 trillion by late 2025
The total SCP market capitalization to expand 43%, reaching $1.1 trillion—surpassing its 2021 peak of $989 billion
Their analysis found a strong correlation between M2 and SCP market cap, with a 12-month R² of 0.36 and a t-statistic of 5.7 (p < 0.0001).
Solana’s Growing Market Share
Currently, Solana holds 15% of the SCP market. However, VanEck anticipates that share will rise significantly:
"Solana’s market share in the SCP sector is expected to grow from 15% to 22% by the end of 2025. Increasing developer adoption is driving DEX volumes, revenues, and active users, reinforcing this projection."
By applying an autoregressive (AR) prediction model, VanEck expects Solana’s market cap to reach $250 billion, with a projected circulating supply of 486 million tokens—resulting in a $520 price per SOL.
