1. Trends of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)
1. Bitcoin price support
After Bitcoin recently broke through the $100,000 mark, the market sentiment was bullish, driven by MicroStrategy's continued increase in holdings (a total of 447,000 BTC) and the inflow of spot ETF funds (purchases reached 51,500 BTC in December, nearly three times the output of miners).
Bernstein analysts predict that Bitcoin may hit $200,000 in 2025, while VanEck believes it may reach $180,000 in the first quarter and then fall back 30%.
Focus tomorrow: Be wary of short-term profit-taking, but institutional buying may continue to support prices.
2. Ethereum performance
After Ethereum's price breaks $4,000 in 2024, it may rise further to over $6,000 in 2025 due to relaxed DeFi regulations and an increase in staking rates (expected to exceed 50%). Recently, the US may approve Ethereum ETF's staking feature, enhancing its attractiveness.
2. Market hotspots and emerging trends
1. The stablecoin and payment revolution
The daily settlement volume of stablecoins is expected to reach $300 billion by 2025, with giants like Apple and Visa potentially accelerating the integration of stablecoin payment systems, promoting cross-border remittances (e.g., US-Mexico transaction volume may increase 5 times). Short-term focus on market share changes of mainstream stablecoins like USDC and USDT.
2. Tokenized securities (RWAs)
The total value of tokenized securities may exceed $50 billion, with institutions like BlackRock promoting tokenization of government bonds and credit, and the integration of traditional finance and DeFi may become a market hotspot tomorrow.
3. The combination of AI and blockchain
The on-chain activities of AI agents are expected to exceed 1 million, involving DeFi yield optimization, social robots, and other fields, with related protocols (such as Virtuals) possibly attracting capital inflows.
3. Policy and regulatory dynamics
1. Favorable US policies
The Trump administration has appointed several pro-crypto officials to promote strategic Bitcoin reserve legislation (such as state-level legislation) and abolish SEC SAB 121 rules, which is favorable for banks custodying crypto assets. If policies are implemented, it may boost market confidence.
2. Trends in Canada and globally
If Canadian Prime Minister candidate Pierre Poilievre is elected, it may accelerate crypto-friendly policies and promote the country as the 'cryptocurrency capital'. At the same time, countries like Russia may expand the use of Bitcoin in trade settlements.
4. Risks and potential pullback signals
1. Market overheating indicators
If the funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts remains above 10%, the MVRV ratio exceeds 5, or Bitcoin's dominance falls below 40%, it may indicate a short-term top.
2. Altcoin volatility
If BTC enters a consolidation phase, altcoins (such as SOL, SUI) may experience a 60% pullback, and high leverage speculative risks should be noted.
5. Summary and operational recommendations
- Short-term strategy: Focus on whether Bitcoin can stabilize at $100,000 and challenge new highs, and if Ethereum breaks $5,500, it may open up upward space.
- Sector rotation: Tokenized assets (RWAs), AI + blockchain, Bitcoin Layer 2 (TVL target 100,000 BTC) may become the direction of capital rotation.
- Risk warning: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investors should rationally view cryptocurrency investments based on their own risk tolerance and investment goals, and not blindly follow trends.
