小牛逼
--
Bearish
I used to strongly believe that an altseason would come, but my perspective has indeed wavered recently.
Now many top KOLs firmly believe in the historical pattern that an altseason will come, urging not to fall before dawn. At least so far, I haven't seen a single KOL hinting that the market might be peaking. This is actually a very dangerous phenomenon, as the views of top KOLs represent the opinions of most retail investors. Will the market makers let you have your way?
People like to use historical cycle patterns as their action guide, believing that an altseason is inevitable. But as you have seen, the previously effective Spring Festival rally, has it come this time?
Last year, a single ETF positive news directly ignited BTC, leading to a surge, while recently a bunch of epic U.S. cryptocurrency policy positive news has resulted in the coin price remaining completely stagnant and instead declining quietly. Is this the market makers controlling the situation to wash out positions? I don't think so. The market makers might have already started unloading, while retail investors keep bottom-fishing! After all, there are expectations regarding U.S. policies and an altseason, so the retail investors' buying power will keep coming in.
Of course, there may be a final small surge, as altcoins have been falling for so long. But I don't think there will be a widespread explosive altseason. Therefore, my strategy is to take profit when it goes up, don't overthink it, and keep at most 10%-20% of my position just in case.
The above are some of my thoughts, which may not be correct, and everyone is welcome to discuss.
Now many top KOLs firmly believe in the historical pattern that an altseason will come, urging not to fall before dawn. At least so far, I haven't seen a single KOL hinting that the market might be peaking. This is actually a very dangerous phenomenon, as the views of top KOLs represent the opinions of most retail investors. Will the market makers let you have your way?
People like to use historical cycle patterns as their action guide, believing that an altseason is inevitable. But as you have seen, the previously effective Spring Festival rally, has it come this time?
Last year, a single ETF positive news directly ignited BTC, leading to a surge, while recently a bunch of epic U.S. cryptocurrency policy positive news has resulted in the coin price remaining completely stagnant and instead declining quietly. Is this the market makers controlling the situation to wash out positions? I don't think so. The market makers might have already started unloading, while retail investors keep bottom-fishing! After all, there are expectations regarding U.S. policies and an altseason, so the retail investors' buying power will keep coming in.
Of course, there may be a final small surge, as altcoins have been falling for so long. But I don't think there will be a widespread explosive altseason. Therefore, my strategy is to take profit when it goes up, don't overthink it, and keep at most 10%-20% of my position just in case.
The above are some of my thoughts, which may not be correct, and everyone is welcome to discuss.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
4
0