Bitcoin just hit a new ATH of $109,382.75 in January 2025, raising a crucial question: will it continue its ascent or start a correction towards a new ATL?
To answer this, here is a study combining price analysis and time analysis, relying on past cycles and (simple 😉) mathematics to anticipate probable scenarios.
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1. The two major scenarios for Bitcoin
Scenario 1: BTC hits new ATH before a correction
→ But has it ever happened that BTC reached two major ATHs in one or two months?
Scenario 2: BTC directly enters a prolonged bearish phase
→ How far could it go and how long would it take?
To decide between these hypotheses, let's explore past cycles.
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2. Has Bitcoin ever had two ATHs in one or two months?
🔍 Historical cycles show that it takes an average of 6 to 7 months between two ATHs.
| **Cycle** | **ATH 1 ($)** | **ATH 1 Date** | **ATH 2 ($)** | **ATH 2 Date** | **ATH Delay** |
| 2013 | 266 | April 2013 | 1,177 | Nov. 2013 | ~7 months |
| 2017 | 3,000 | Jun 2017 | 19,800 | Dec 2017 | ~6 months |
| 2021 | 64,899 | Apr 2021 | 69,000 | Nov 2021 | ~7 months |
| 2025 | 109,382.75 | Jan. 2025 | ??? | ??? | ??? |
⚠️ Conclusion: Bitcoin has never chained two ATHs in a few weeks. Statistically, a new immediate ATH therefore seems unlikely.
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3. An intermediate retracement before a potential new ATH?
If Bitcoin follows a similar pattern to past cycles, it could first retrace before rising to a new ATH.
Intermediate retracements observed after a first ATH are on average -40% to -54% before a bullish recovery:
| **Cycle** | **ATH 1 ($)** | **Retracement (%)** | **Lowest after ATH 1 ($)** | **ATH 2 ($)** |
| 2013 | 266 | -75% | 65 | 1,177 |
| 2017 | 3,000 | -40% | 1,800 | 19,800 |
| 2021 | 64,899 | -54% | 30,000 | 69,000 |
| 2025 | 109,382.75 | ??? | ??? | ??? |
✍ Application to 2025:
With a -40% retracement: BTC could fall to $65,600
With a -54% retracement: BTC could fall to $50,300
✅ Likely Scenario: If BTC follows its historical pattern, a correction towards $50,000 - $65,600 is more likely than an immediate new ATH.
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4. What if BTC goes straight into a bear market?
Historically, after each last ATH of a cycle, Bitcoin has corrected between -84% and -93% to a new ATL.
We studied the gradual reduction of corrections with a geometric mean, which suggests that the next correction could be around -82.5%.
🔢 Application to bearish scenarios:
| **ATH ($)** | **Estimated ATL (-82.5%)** |
| **109,382.75** | **19,100** |
| **120,000.00** | **21,000 ** |
| **140,000.00** | **24,500** |
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🕰️ How long does it take for Bitcoin to reach its ATL after an ATH?
We observed that the delay between one ATH and the next ATL gradually decreases.
| **Cycle** | **ATH ($)** | **ATL ($)** | **Time to ATL (months)** |
| 2013 | 1,177.00 | 152 | 13 |
| 2017 | 19,800.00 | 3,152 | 12 |
| 2021 | 69,000.00 | 15,500 | 10 |
| 2025 ?| 109,382.75 | ? | 8 (projection) |
📌 Observed trend:
In 2013, Bitcoin took 13 months to reach its ATL.
In 2017, it took 12 months.
In 2021, it only took 10 months.
2025? → If this trend continues, the ATL could be reached in just 8 months after the ATH of January 2025, i.e. around August-September 2025.
👉 Bitcoin could therefore enter a bearish phase more quickly than expected, with an ATL potentially reached as early as the end of summer 2025.
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5. Summary: What is the most likely trend?
📊 Two possible scenarios:
1️⃣ Intermediate bullish scenario (retracement towards $50,000 - $65,600 before a new ATH)
2️⃣ Prolonged bearish scenario (gradual descent towards an ATL at $21,000 - $24,500, reached as early as August-September 2025).
🚨 Which hypothesis should be retained?
❌ A new immediate ATH is unlikely (no historical precedent of consecutive ATHs in one or two months).
✅ A retracement towards $50,000 - $65,600 before any further upside is more consistent with BTC history.
⚠️ If BTC enters a prolonged bear market, its ATL could come sooner than expected, as early as summer 2025.
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🎯 Investment strategy update:
Short term: Monitor the $50,000 - $65,600 area for a potential bounce.
Medium term: A new ATH could happen, but not for several months.
Long term: If Bitcoin follows its bearish cycle, ATL could arrive as early as August-September 2025.
