1. A Silent Financial Revolution
In May 2024, the U.S. Congress quietly established a "Joint Working Group on Cryptocurrency Regulation" led by the Democratic and Republican parties, with the goal of directly targeting the national strategic positioning of Bitcoin. David Sacks, the cryptocurrency czar, publicly declared: "Bitcoin reserves have become a technical solution for the United States to maintain its global financial leadership." This statement marks that Bitcoin has officially entered the core of the discussion of the U.S. national strategy from a marginal asset.
Data from the U.S. Treasury Department shows that by 2024, 17 countries around the world have included Bitcoin in their central bank balance sheets, and the growth rate of "de-dollarized gold reserves" in China, Russia, Iran and other countries has exceeded 30%. Faced with the multipolarization challenges faced by the traditional dollar system, U.S. policymakers have begun to view Bitcoin as a "new arsenal" to hedge against geopolitical risks and technical monetary revolutions.
II. The 'Strategic Value' Logic of Bitcoin
1. Technical Fixes for Dollar Hegemony
The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has dropped from 72% in 2000 to 58% in 2023, while the shares of the yuan, euro, and gold have continued to rise. Bitcoin's scarcity (total supply of 21 million coins) and anti-inflation properties make it a potential tool for hedging against the overextension of dollar credit. If the U.S. includes Bitcoin in its strategic reserves, it could maintain control over the new monetary system by managing the largest liquid cryptocurrency asset globally.
2. Preemptive Actions in the Digital Cold War
China's digital yuan has already covered 130 countries in cross-border trade settlements, and the legislative process for the EU's digital euro is accelerating. Bitcoin's 'neutrality' as a decentralized asset makes it a key stepping stone for the U.S. to bypass the SWIFT system and compete for dominance in the digital economy. The Atlantic Council, a U.S. think tank, points out: 'Whoever controls the pricing of Bitcoin will define the financial rules of the Web3 era.'
3. Alternative Solutions to the Debt Crisis
The scale of U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with annual interest payments accounting for 3.2% of GDP. If Bitcoin becomes a reserve asset, its deflationary mechanism could hedge against the risks of debt monetization. Morgan Stanley estimates that if the U.S. holds 5% of the circulating Bitcoin supply (approximately 1 million coins), its market value fluctuations could create a fiscal buffer equivalent to 0.5% of GDP.
III. Implementation Path: From Regulatory Sandboxes to National Reserves
1. Breakthroughs in Legislative Frameworks
(Financial Innovation and Technology Act of the 21st Century) (FIT Act) draft first proposes the concept of 'Digital Asset Strategic Reserves' (DASR), allowing the Treasury to hold Bitcoin under specific conditions. Core provisions include:
- Authorize the Federal Reserve to establish a 'Cryptocurrency Liquidity Facility' (CLF);
- The Treasury can use the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to purchase Bitcoin;
- Require miners to report hash rate data to the CFTC for on-chain monitoring.
2. The Game of Reserve Scale
If referred to the gold reserve ratio (the U.S. gold reserves account for 15% of the global total), the reasonable scale of Bitcoin strategic reserves is approximately 3.15 million coins (15% of circulating supply). However, considering market liquidity constraints, the initial approach may be 'gradual acquisition'. Sources reveal that the Treasury has tested conducting over-the-counter bulk transactions through the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
3. Contest for Technological Sovereignty
The U.S. is promoting a 'regulatory-friendly upgrade' of the Bitcoin core protocol, including:
- Mandate that Lightning Network nodes enforce the OFAC sanctions list;
- Develop mixers that comply with FATF travel rules;
- Embed a digital dollar settlement layer within the Bitcoin Layer 2 network.
IV. Controversies and Risks: The Double-Edged Sword of the State Machine
1. The Paradox of Price Volatility
The volatility of Bitcoin this year remains as high as 60%, far exceeding gold (15%) and U.S. stocks (20%). If held on a large scale, U.S. balance sheets will be exposed to severe market value fluctuations. The solution may be to issue 'Bitcoin bonds' to transfer price risks to the private sector.
2. Regulatory Arbitrage Dilemma
The SEC insists on classifying Bitcoin as a 'commodity', while the Treasury prefers to define it as a 'strategic reserve asset', and the Federal Reserve is concerned about its interference with monetary policy. This classification confusion may lead to a regulatory vacuum, reminiscent of the derivatives chaos before the 2008 subprime crisis.
3. Risks of Energy Politicization
The annual electricity consumption of the Bitcoin network is approximately 127 terawatt-hours, equivalent to the total electricity consumption of Norway. If the U.S. incorporates it into reserves, it may trigger targeted sanctions from the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), exacerbating international frictions in the new energy sector.
V. Chain Reactions in the Global Financial System
Once the U.S. establishes Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, it will trigger multiple effects:
Capital Siphoning: Global institutional investors may increase their Bitcoin allocation from 1% to 5%, triggering a flow of funds amounting to trillions of dollars;
Fiat Currency Competition: Emerging market countries may accelerate the issuance of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), creating a hedge against Bitcoin reserves;
Military Financialization: NATO has studied using Bitcoin to provide financing for Ukraine to bypass Russian blockades.
VI. Conclusion: The 'Quantum Entanglement' of the New Currency War
The essence of Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve is the U.S. attempt to co-opt decentralized technology as a tool of 'centralized power.' This experiment may yield three outcomes:
1. Success: Bitcoin becomes 'Gold 2.0' in the digital age, allowing the U.S. to maintain financial hegemony by controlling its liquidity;
2. Failure: Price collapse leads to fiscal disaster, accelerating the collapse of dollar credit;
3. Mutation: Giving rise to a hybrid currency system co-led by algorithms and geopolitical forces.
As Satoshi Nakamoto left the metaphor in the genesis block - 'The Chancellor on the brink of a second bailout for banks', history is witnessing that the saviors and disruptors of the old order may be two sides of the same coin.