BTC and the overall market experienced an epic cleansing on February 3. Not to mention retail investors, many bloggers were caught off guard. So, are you still at the table? If you survived, what else can you play? Is the bull still here? What has influenced the recent trends? What pitfalls should be noted? Reflecting back, this video serves only as a personal recap and does not constitute any investment advice. Please follow for a more comprehensive understanding of the market every day. #比特币四年周期将改变？
First, the conclusion is given, followed by news and technical analysis:
Regarding BTC: It is forecasted to adjust between 95000-100000, with the market fluctuating significantly alongside U.S. stocks. Currently, more positive news is needed to stimulate independent market movements, but there is relatively strong support around 97000, making the probability of a deeper drop low.
Regarding BNB: It is expected to consolidate between 560-630, with a weak trend and low selling pressure. Overall, the BNB chain is relatively healthy, and new mining needs to be developed to stimulate independent market movements.
Regarding ETH: It is expected to fluctuate around 2500-2900. Despite many good news and institutions, it hasn't risen, and it has also broken through the 200-day moving average and the 21-week moving average. If holding, one might consider exchanging some for BTC when the BTC exchange rate is favorable.
The Grape coin is weak, with support at 0.227 downward and strong resistance at 0.41 upward. Solana is performing stronger this round; ETH's weakness is beneficial for Solana, but in the short term, the weekly and daily charts have been in a downward trend. If it continues to drop, one can gradually add positions. The risk for Ripple is still present, primarily due to the previous excessive gains and the high number of profit-taking positions that have not been sufficiently cleaned out. The Dollar coin is basically a commemorative coin, and it is currently unclear where the bottom is.
The altcoin season index shows that in the past 90 days, about 37 projects among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap have outperformed BTC. It is currently unclear when the altcoin season will emerge; it seems more like an altcoin funeral.
From the news perspective, the probability of the U.S. establishing a Bitcoin reserve by 2025 has risen to 47%, with assessing Bitcoin reserves being one of the primary tasks of the government working group. The U.S. views NFTs and meme coins as 'collectibles' rather than securities or commodities, which results in different tax procedures. The Trump administration reduced the SEC's cryptocurrency enforcement team to lessen regulation and promote cryptocurrency development. Some lawyers have been reassigned, and the SEC has formed a new group to review the handling of digital assets. Four committees in the U.S. will form a bipartisan working group to advance digital asset frameworks and stablecoin legislation, planning to reintroduce it in the 119th Congress (21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act).
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From the BTC candlestick chart, after this round of major adjustments, the daily chart currently appears to be in a box shape, while the 4-hour chart is still in a downward trend.
2. Observing the greed and fear index: Currently at 54, it falls within the neutral range, which has only accounted for about 15% of the past year, indicating it is not a relatively stable state. Bull markets generally return to greed in the short term.
3. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is 0.0041%, while ETH is at 0.0040%. The bearish sentiment remains strong, with many bulls taking a wait-and-see approach.
4. Observing the maximum pain point of options for the next three months, for three days, it has been between 98000-100000, with little immediate impact. Note that at the end of March, there is a significant nominal amount of 10.1 billion at 85000 waiting, so before the end of March, any major increase could lead to a consideration of further reducing positions.
5. Observing spot ETFs: Yesterday, BTC saw an inflow of 3363, and ETH saw an inflow of 106900, which provides important support at current price levels.
6. From the RSI relative strength index, BTC and Solana are neutral over 24 hours, while ETH, Grape coin, and Ripple have weakened, with BNB dropping to oversold levels. Most other mainstream and altcoins have also dropped to oversold and weak levels, indicating that there is already low selling pressure across the market.
7. From the peak escaping index, it is currently situated in the lower middle, at a moderate position.
8. The BTC holding index has dropped to 1.25, making it less suitable for holding. Those with low positions can consider investing a little.
After these rounds of sharp declines, the summary is that the trend is increasingly becoming correlated with U.S. stock fluctuations. Altcoins are risky; even those ranked beyond the top five should be approached with caution. Contracts should not exceed 2 times leverage, and avoid opening positions in volatile conditions. For those with some positions, it's best to hold off for now and observe the situation further.