#加密市场反弹
【The next round of altcoin market starts at the end of July to early August 2025】
The sell-off rebound on February 3/4 indicates that large funds and institutions are flowing back into Bitcoin, while the buying power for altcoins is weak. The willingness of various exchanges to support and scoop up is not obvious, and the market is developing in a direction dominated by Bitcoin, forcing retail investors to cut their altcoins (including Ethereum) and take on Bitcoin.
The characteristics of this round of the cycle have already emerged, summarized as follows:
Sufficient consensus funds from Bitcoin institutions, stair-step style upward movement
Altcoins lack innovative small funds, prolonged grinding with brief surges (referencing the market conditions of February and March 2024, and November and December, where the upward movement did not exceed 45 days, with grinding lasting over 7 months)
Combining the above characteristics and considering the interest rate cut timing from Master Bao in the second half of the year, a reasonable prediction for the next widespread altcoin rally is at the end of July to early August after over half a year of grinding.
Before this, altcoins will continue to hit new lows, forcing retail investors who are laying low-priced positions in a bear market to cut losses, while also ruthlessly wiping out the long positions that bet on the bottom. What you think is the bottom is actually far from it, and there is still half a chart below the candlestick.
Key indicator: Market capitalization ratio.
Binance data shows that as of February 4, the market capitalization ratio of Bitcoin has exceeded 60%, which is a dividing line for altcoin popularity. This is more useful than the indices that other KOLs teach you; when it exceeds 60%, altcoins are sluggish.