#比特币四年周期将改变？

Whether Bitcoin's four-year cycle (usually associated with the 'halving event') will change depends on the comprehensive influence of multiple factors such as technology, market, miner behavior, external environment, etc. Here are key point analyses:

**1. Will the halving mechanism itself change?**

- **Code rules unchanged**: Bitcoin's halving cycle (halving the reward every 210,000 blocks, approximately every four years) is set at the protocol layer. Unless the community reaches a consensus to modify the code, the cycle will not change. There are currently no signs that the community will support such modifications.

- **Long-term impact**: After all Bitcoin is mined in 2140, block rewards will rely entirely on transaction fees, but by then, the four-year cycle will have ended, which is unrelated to the current discussion.

**2. Is it possible for the market cycle to weaken?**

- **Historical patterns**: After the last three halvings (2012, 2016, 2020), Bitcoin experienced significant increases, forming the expectation of a 'halving-bull market' cycle. However, this pattern may be broken by the following factors:

- **Market maturation**: The growth of institutional investors (such as ETFs and publicly traded companies) and the derivatives market may suppress extreme volatility, making price trends more complex.

- **Macro environment impact**: Global monetary policies (such as interest rate hikes/cuts by the Federal Reserve), geopolitical risks, and increased correlation with traditional financial markets may overshadow the supply and demand logic inherent to halving itself.

- **Pre-pricing**: Market participants may buy in anticipation of halving, leading to price front-running and weakening post-halving upward momentum (for example, the performance before the 2024 halving).

**3. Miner behavior and network security**

- **Miner pressure after halving**: The reduction in block rewards may lead some miners to exit, and a decrease in hash power may raise short-term concerns about network security. If Bitcoin prices do not rise simultaneously, this effect will be more pronounced.

- **Increase in transaction fee proportion**: With the increase in on-chain activities such as the Ordinals protocol, transaction fees may gradually compensate for the reduction in block rewards, which in the long term may alleviate miners' sensitivity to halving.