According to Polymarket data, the probability of predicting 'the United States establishing a Bitcoin national reserve by 2025' has currently reached 51%, although it has decreased by about 14% from the previous high of 65%. Currently, the cumulative betting amount for this prediction has reached $581,400, with a deadline of December 31, 2025. The standard for determining whether the United States establishes a Bitcoin national reserve is whether the U.S. government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves (excluding confiscated assets). The source of the determination primarily relies on official information from the U.S. government or the Federal Reserve, while also referencing credible reports with consensus recognition.
This predicted probability has a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. If the United States establishes a Bitcoin national reserve, it will greatly enhance the recognition and status of Bitcoin, attracting more institutions and investors to the market, increasing demand for cryptocurrencies, and thereby driving up the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Moreover, once the United States successfully establishes a Bitcoin national reserve, it may trigger imitation from other countries, bringing broader development space to the cryptocurrency market and accelerating the globalization process of cryptocurrencies.
However, the current predicted probability has decreased compared to previous highs, which may lower market expectations for cryptocurrency returns, affecting investor confidence, and leading to some funds flowing out of the cryptocurrency market, causing price fluctuations. Investors need to closely monitor the dynamics of the U.S. government and the direction of relevant policies, cautiously assess market risks, and make reasonable investment decisions.
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