The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates at 3:00 AM tonight. Let me explain why Trump is eager for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

Trump believes: The reason the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut rates is simply due to the fear of rising inflation.

So he made an unconventional assumption: If I join forces with OPEC and U.S. oil and gas companies to bring down oil prices, then inflation may not necessarily rise due to my tariff policies. On one hand, the tariff policies are pushing domestic prices up, while on the other hand, falling oil prices are lowering living costs. With one rising and one falling, inflation can be stabilized, so the Federal Reserve's concerns would be unfounded. Trump thinks to himself, I’m really clever, aren’t I more knowledgeable about interest rates than the Federal Reserve?

So why does Trump want the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates? Of course, it is from the perspective of U.S. fiscal pressure. As of November 25, 2024, the total U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion. In 2024, the U.S. federal government will pay as much as $870 billion in interest on the national debt. Payments for interest on the national debt in 2025 may continue to rise, possibly exceeding $1 trillion. Meanwhile, the U.S. fiscal revenue for 2024 is $4.92 trillion. Just think about it: the interest alone accounts for 20% of the U.S. fiscal revenue in one year; what a terrifying number that is.

On another front, Trump announced the establishment of a "Department of Government Efficiency" to be managed by Musk. The main responsibility of this department is to cut unnecessary spending and reorganize federal agencies to improve government efficiency. In plain terms, it aims to reduce U.S. fiscal expenditures. Lowering interest rates can not only reduce interest payments but also alleviate pressure on businesses, especially in U.S. manufacturing, continuing to support his policy of bringing manufacturing back. So that’s why Trump has been insisting that the Federal Reserve should continue to lower interest rates.