The revelation of Nvidia's plunge
The market reaction is actually not very sensitive
We always think that the market's reaction is always immediate, and any disturbance will be immediately reflected in the stock price. However, Nvidia's plunge caused by the DeepSeek incident has made people re-understand the logic of market operation.
That is, the lag of market reaction
• The plunge was delayed for a month: When DeepSeek v3 was released, the IT and AI circles had already been hotly discussed, but the market took a full month to react.
• The three-step rhythm of market operation: From technological breakthroughs to the formation of market consensus, it is not achieved overnight. Message transmission and digestion often go through the following three stages:
1. Technological breakthrough → Practitioner cognition
2. Institutional decision-making level digestion
3. Market consensus formation
It is not surprising that it takes a month in these layers of transmission.
Human nature and market reaction
• Understanding does not necessarily mean making money: As early as a month ago, when DeepSeek v3 was released, many people were bearish on Nvidia, but few people actually took action.
• The fallacy of inertial thinking: People generally believe that the news has spread widely and the opportunity has disappeared, but they don’t know that the market consensus may be slower than expected.
The market reaction is not as sensitive as we think. Next time you encounter a similar situation, don’t hesitate because the news "seems to have been digested". Seize the opportunities that have not been fully delivered, and you may become a winner.