BTC Daily Price Movement Analysis
a. Key Resistance and Support:
Main Resistance: $105,500 (currently a psychological rejection zone).
Next Resistance Target: $112,000 (if it breaks $105,500 with strong volume).
Main Support: $104,000 (critical zone that will determine whether the price will dump).
Next Support: $90,000 (if a sharp drop occurs due to large-scale liquidation).
b. Indicator Divergence:
RSI: No significant bullish or bearish divergence on the 1-hour timeframe. However, the overbought condition on the stochastic could signal temporary weakness.
MACD: Bullish momentum remains strong, but the histogram is approaching its peak, indicating potential slowdown.
c. Fibonacci Retracement:
If the price dumps: A correction to the 50% level at $90,000 is highly likely.
If the price pumps: It needs to break the Fibonacci extension level at 1.618 around $112,000-$115,000 to continue the bullish trend.
2. Global Sentiment Analysis:
a. Positive Factors:
Institutional Adoption: Large investors like BlackRock and Fidelity continue to increase their Bitcoin exposure, supporting the medium-term bullish trend.
Early-Year Bullrun Sentiment: January-February typically sees light bullish movement before the market enters a large accumulation phase in Q2.
b. Negative Factors:
Regulation Risk: A sudden regulatory announcement from the U.S. or other major countries could trigger fear and a sell-off.
Liquidation Risk: Many traders are using high leverage at the $105,500 resistance zone, so if the price fails to break out, the risk of liquidation could accelerate a drop to $90,000.
3. Weekly Volatility Prediction:
Based on historical volatility patterns:
Monday-Wednesday: Price movements tend to be flat or show slight corrections as market participants await new catalysts.
Thursday-Friday: Major momentum often occurs, either a pump or a dump, depending on whether the $105,500 resistance can be broken.
Weekend: Trading volume tends to be lower, so the price may move within a certain range unless there’s significant news.
Conclusion:
Pump Probability: 65%
If the price breaks $105,500, Bitcoin will head towards $112,000-$115,000 with strong bullish momentum.Dump Probability: 35%
If the price fails to break out and falls below $104,000, Bitcoin will likely correct to the $90,000 zone.
Strategic Action Steps:
Prepare Pending Orders:
Buy Stop: Above $105,600 to capture a potential pump.
Sell Stop: Below $103,800 to anticipate a dump.
