Recently, I have mainly emphasized the Spring Festival market, and the main reasons are as follows:
1. In previous years, the cryptocurrency market has seen activities during the Spring Festival, regardless of whether it is a bull or bear market. This is considered to be more credible than the notion of a four-year cycle.
2. The benefits brought by Trump's administration have been consumed by the emergence of MEME coins, leading to a brief market weakness, and there are no new hot topics for speculation.
Against this backdrop, we saw Trump mention cryptocurrencies at Davos, refer to BTC reserves, and also discuss the repeal of SAB121. Currently, aside from the uncertainty regarding Japan's potential interest rate hike, there are virtually no negative factors in the market.
Simply put, SAB121 requires digital asset custodians to treat these digital assets as liabilities and reflect them on the balance sheet. The impact of this is that it will worsen the custodians' balance sheets, making it difficult for them to manage digital assets, such as banks and other institutions. Essentially, it means that banks can no longer hold users' cryptocurrencies. The banking industry cannot enter the cryptocurrency sector, and even services like stablecoin exchanges cannot operate normally, which naturally affects the channels for people to enter and exit the cryptocurrency market. The interpretation of this is that it is a major negative.
SAB121 has been rejected numerous times but has also been passed several times, indicating that there are still certain opposing opinions regarding cryptocurrencies within the US. Trump's administration naturally aims to create a crypto-friendly environment, and the repeal of SAB121 is a done deal; otherwise, his cryptocurrency policies could not be implemented normally.
However, from a price perspective, after the repeal of SAB121, while cryptocurrencies did rise, the increase was not significant, less than 10%. This clearly indicates that the market has not had time to react to this information, or it was already anticipated, or perhaps there is not much money in the US market to buy the dip. Therefore, even though it brought good news, prices did not rise much.
The next market that has the ability to change the crypto landscape is the Chinese market, and the Spring Festival is a key factor in this.
The main factors that could boost the cryptocurrency market during the Spring Festival include:
1. The influential exchanges in the crypto space are all operated by Chinese individuals, which everyone understands. During the Spring Festival, corresponding promotions are naturally essential, and exchanges have the advantages of timing, location, and human factors.
2. Before the Spring Festival, everyone knows that funds are tight at the end of the year. Once the Spring Festival arrives, this tight trend will ease, and consumption levels will also increase.
3. During the Spring Festival, the range of investment options for Chinese investors is limited. The domestic stock market, like A-shares, will be closed, and domestic US index funds will also pause (US stocks will trade normally), and the bond market will also close. Only cryptocurrencies can continue to trade normally.
4. Chinese investors have ample time, and this is a critical period to attract new investors. Only with outside capital entering can the market develop positively; otherwise, it will just be a PVP within the market. This will also change the investment landscape of the cryptocurrency market in the first quarter.
The Spring Festival market further indicates that the role of Asian capital in the cryptocurrency market has not weakened; it may even strengthen further. The crypto bull market from 2024 to 2025 has already lasted a year, with significant market differentiation. Trump's administration acts as a catalyst, so we have reason to make an optimistic prediction about the 2025 crypto bull market. It also indicates that now is still a good time for cryptocurrency investment, and the focus should be on whether one can seize this opportunity.