Last night and this morning, BTC successively tested 104,600, 103,800, and 103,600. During the day, it fluctuated narrowly between 101,400 and 102,000, with a weak rebound, indicating that some funds are beginning to withdraw and take a wait-and-see approach.

Tomorrow, Friday, Japan is set to raise interest rates, with a probability as high as 99% that it will happen; this is basically a done deal, which I mentioned at least 7 days in advance. We need to treat this as a short-term negative factor. However, there is no need to panic too much, as the expectations for this rate hike have already been largely digested. Furthermore, this time, there are two major differences compared to Japan's rate hike on August 5 last year: 1. The Federal Reserve had not started cutting rates as of 8.5, but now the Fed has already cut rates twice, leading to different market liquidity and macro conditions; 2. Japan's rate hike this time is due to being forced to implement the Trump administration's new policies, and the market had released expectations more than a week in advance. Therefore, it will not reverse the bullish trend of the cryptocurrency market. I predict that when Japan's rate hike occurs tomorrow, it will initially drop sharply and then quickly recover or at least rebound rapidly over the weekend to repair various indicators; thus, important support points below can be used for bottom fishing. However, small and medium-sized investors need to avoid this; they should buy at the first opportunity when the price drops sharply and enter the spot market.

Around 99,200 is the first support level below; if it breaks strongly, watch the 95,755-93,300 area, which touches the middle line of the 5-day Bollinger Bands (around 93,300). However, to reach this low point, several consecutive bearish candles will be needed.