Will there be another sharp drop before Trump takes office?
The key to the future market trend depends on the period before and after Trump's inauguration. The current macroeconomic situation has improved. At present, the probability of betting on a rate cut in March has risen to 30%, the probability of a rate cut in May is 55%, and the cumulative probability of a rate cut in June has reached 94% (that is, the probability of at least one rate cut in January-June is 94%).
There is a more important thing next week, that is, Japan may announce an interest rate hike on January 24. Once the interest rate hike is confirmed, it may bring a shock to the market.
Therefore, the key time window for rising may be the 15th to 20th. If the prices of various currencies have risen and touched the resistance range, then you can consider reducing some positions appropriately.
Of course, if the data changes in the later period, the macroeconomic situation will also change accordingly, and we will naturally have to adjust our investment strategy accordingly. At present, I still hold most of the long positions.
This market is still full of opportunities to make money quickly, but we need to conduct in-depth research, continuously improve our own cognitive level, and clarify in which aspects we have the ability to make continuous profits.
After each entry, we should estimate when to exit in order to be invincible.
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