1. Key points of the SEC's appeal.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially appealed against Ripple on January 16, mainly targeting the nature of XRP in the secondary market (i.e., retail trading), attempting to overturn part of the previous court's rulings. The SEC believes:
• Ripple's public promotion of XRP has led investors to expect appreciation, which should be considered part of an 'investment contract.'
• The court previously ruled that Ripple's institutional sales were illegal, but retail trading does not count as securities. The SEC requests a reevaluation of this part, arguing that the logic of the ruling is inconsistent.
This appeal does not fully overturn the case but challenges the judge's interpretation of the Howey test (the standard for determining securities).
2. Ripple's disadvantages
• The SEC still stays firmly on the case: this lawsuit was thought to end after achieving some victories in 2023, but the SEC has launched another offensive, meaning Ripple may still face a longer-term legal battle.
• Regulatory pressure has not dissipated: even if the court does not support all of the SEC's claims, Ripple still cannot completely shake off the 'security' label, which will affect its cooperation with financial institutions and may even impact XRP's development in the U.S. market.
• Institutional investors are cautiously observing: ongoing regulatory uncertainty may deter large investors from further positioning in XRP, affecting market liquidity.
3. Why didn't XRP crash?
Despite the SEC's appeal, XRP's price did not collapse, possibly due to the following reasons:
• The market expects the Trump administration to be more favorable towards cryptocurrencies, which keeps investors confident in Ripple.
• The cryptocurrency market is still on an upward trend, and capital inflows may temporarily offset the negative impact of the SEC lawsuit.
• The SEC did not directly demand an immediate halt to XRP trading, so the market did not experience excessive panic.
4. Possible impacts after Trump’s inauguration on 1/20
• If the Trump administration changes the SEC's regulatory policy, Ripple may gain a more favorable environment and even have the opportunity to settle the lawsuit.
• But if the SEC remains under hardliners, cryptocurrency regulation may continue to tighten, and Ripple will still face long-term regulatory pressure.
• XRP may continue to fluctuate between legal battles and market speculation, with significant risks in the short term.
Conclusion
Ripple still faces regulatory challenges this time, as the SEC seeks to overturn some rulings through the 'investment contract' argument, preventing Ripple from completely escaping risks. However, the market's view on XRP has not fully turned pessimistic, supported by expectations of policies from the Trump administration, so the price has not collapsed. But if the SEC continues to apply pressure, Ripple's regulatory risks will still exist, making the next few months a critical observation period.