#BTC重回10万

【$btc】2025.1.16

① Where can it rise to? 100950 is the current strong resistance, and the pressure is quite hard. Therefore, near this position, there will likely be a price adjustment. The adjustment will take a day or two, and then it will continue to rise. The target position for this wave of Bitcoin is temporarily set at 104000. As for whether it will go higher or even set a new high, that's really hard to say. This wave of increase is basically aimed at Trump's expectations. But it's not the expectations before taking office, it's about the administrative directives related to the cryptocurrency industry issued after taking office, as well as some preliminary actions that can still be taken for the cryptocurrency industry. Mainly, this energy has caused institutions to step in quickly and in advance. Additionally, last night's CPI data showed that the published value met expectations, indicating that inflation in the U.S., although still hovering at a high level, remains within controllable expectations. Therefore, there has been almost no change in the interest rate cut expectations for next year. No change is the best change; otherwise, if the expectations for interest rate cuts keep declining, it can only slowly drain market liquidity. So, combining these two factors, this round will basically last for a while. But if you want to define whether this round is a rebound or a reversal, I think it's unnecessary; as long as it can rise, that's enough, and you can still have some gains, even substantial ones. As for when major risks will come, let's wait a few days to see. Currently, there are only small-scale adjustments.

② If faced with an adjustment, where is the support below? The short-term support is at 98600, and then there is 97300. For now, we won't look at lower positions. If even 97300 can't hold, the second test could come soon. At that time, we will analyze specific issues in detail.

③ Can I short now? Currently, shorting with a stop loss at the previous high is advisable; if you can stop it, go ahead. However, there is a possibility that after hitting your stop loss, it may drop. But if you do not stop, when the market faces key resistance and makes a breakthrough, you will be passive. So another option is to consider around 109000, which is relatively safe and stable, but also set your stop loss properly. Because who can know at which key point the main force will suddenly exert strength? The only thing that can be judged now is that the bulls are strong and the bears are weak, but whether the bulls need to take a break, I'm not sure.