January 16, 2025 Market Analysis Report
Bitcoin Head and Shoulders Structure Change
Head and Shoulders Structure Change (NOW): Bitcoin is currently undergoing a change in the head and shoulders structure. Initially, it broke below the support line, forming a wedge structure. This wedge structure is viewed as a large-scale price fluctuation range, with expected price movements within the (89K, 110K) range.
Future likelihood of sideways fluctuations for 3 to 6 months, starting from November 23, 2024 Short Trap and Structural Decline: At the right shoulder position, Bitcoin formed a long trap. The overall market experienced a news-driven decline (Silk Road), with prices dipping to the lower boundary but not continuing downwards, instead completing a reversal rally within the 89~86 range (this is a classic structural transformation method)
H&S (Head and Shoulders) Wedge Structure Transformation Future Trend: Recent news-driven trading is extremely evident, with Silk Road & macro data & TRUMP favorable (basis for unilateral judgment before taking office), but the final direction of prices still relies on the impact of subsequent favorable conditions. In the next 2~3 days, there may be low-entry opportunities to focus on standard structures. The quality of this opportunity will be weaker than the quality of the 89K bottom-fishing opportunity.
Profit and Loss Ratio and Trading Mindset
Grasping the Profit and Loss Ratio: For trading, the profit and loss ratio is key. At the 89 position, the profit and loss ratio is good, risk is lower, and the short trap is quite evident, making it a high-quality opportunity. Whether to enter is technical, how much to enter is mindset, and whether it succeeds is luck. But do good deeds without asking about the future. Pursuing precision is sometimes not wrong, but pursuing precision without entering is missing the point; enter as much as you can and earn as much as you can.
Mindset Management: In trading, mindset management is crucial. By controlling emotions and reasonably setting profit and loss ratios, brothers can better cope with fluctuations and risks in complex market environments.
Reminder: Market Difficulty Increasing: As the market approaches the news day, trading difficulty rises exponentially. Even if there are potential opportunities at this stage, the profit margin is small, so extra caution is needed to avoid excessive risks.
Conclusion
The overall market is influenced by Trump's inauguration, with strong buying pressure. In the next 2-3 days, there may be standard structural short-term opportunities, as it is wise to take profits before the news day, utilizing cost advantages to withstand volatility risks. The core issue is to observe whether the policies after taking office will lead to unilateral rises or range fluctuations; shorting is absolutely not advisable.
Previous Review:
89000 Low Entry Unilateral Review Before Taking Office
This report and its content are personal opinions and market analysis and should not be considered as any form of investment advice or recommendation. All information is for reference only, and investment decisions should be made based on individual financial conditions, investment objectives, and risk tolerance.
