Bitcoin’s price surged 120% in 2024, reaching a record high of $108,316 in mid-December before retreating to $90,000, a 17.5% drop from its peak. This correction coincided with massive withdrawals from spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., including a net outflow of $583 million in a single day.
Since its inception, bitcoin has undergone four major bull cycles, each lasting more than 750 days and averaging gains of 57,870%. Deutsche Bank notes that these prolonged rallies are closely tied to bitcoin halving events, which reduce mining rewards roughly every four years.
For example, the most recent rally from November 2022 to December 2024 saw a 581% increase, driven in part by the 2024 halving, which restricted supply.
In addition to these longer-term trends, bitcoin’s price history includes 23 shorter rallies since 2011, often lasting less than a year. These rallies were usually fueled by macroeconomic shifts or changes in market sentiment.
Prior to 2018, these rallies averaged gains of 528% in 77 days. After 2018, the magnitude of the gains dropped to 136%, while the duration increased to 103 days.
In contrast, bitcoin corrections have been notably more frequent, according to Deutsche. Since 2011, there have been 19 corrections greater than 20%, with an average magnitude of 44%. “These episodes tended to be concentrated before 2018, but since then they have become more spaced out, longer (82 days before 2018 and 194 after) and deeper (-41% and -50% on average.
According to Deutsche, the future trajectory will depend on whether the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates high and the Trump administration follows through on its pro-crypto promises. The possibility of regulatory reform and looser monetary policy will be key factors in bitcoin’s future performance.
