Cryptocurrency expert Gert van Lagen reported that Elliott's wave theory indicates a rise in the Bitcoin price to $300,000 by the end of March 2025.
Van Lagen published a chart showing the price change of BTC, depicting five waves:
The first upward wave during which the price of Bitcoin rose from 2009 to 2011;
Sharp correction that lasted until the end of 2011;
Impulse upward wave observed from 2012 to 2017;
Relatively smooth correction in 2018;
Explosive upward wave that occurred in 2019.
Waves in the Bitcoin price change chart
According to Gert, with each explosive wave, the Bitcoin price increased at an angle of 78.4° on average until it reached the upper line of the rising channel. Accordingly, the current explosive wave should end at block 890,000, which is likely to be added to the network by the end of March, with the peak value of BTC around $300,000.
It is worth noting that Van Lagen's forecasts should be approached with a degree of skepticism for two main reasons. First, in October 2024, he predicted the BTC price would rise to $250,000 by the end of the year, while the coin barely exceeded $108,000. Second, a Reddit forum user named denfaina believes that the cycle theory based on wave theory will cease to work for BTC due to hyperbitcoinization, which is characterized by a significant excess of demand over the supply of coins, as miners mine far fewer coins than ETF issuers and public companies like MicroStrategy buy.
Additional data and analytics
Reasons for Bitcoin's rise according to experts
1. Increase in adoption by institutional investors
Companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla continue to accumulate BTC, creating long-term demand.
Approval of Bitcoin ETF, which makes it easier for retail investors to access.
2. Reduction in coin issuance
With each halving (the next is expected in April 2024), the miners' reward is halved, reducing the amount of Bitcoin available for sale.
3. Current macroeconomic situation
Deterioration of the traditional economy and increased interest in decentralized assets.
Growing distrust in fiat currencies drives people to seek alternative assets.
Key risks of the forecast
1. Regulatory pressure
Increased SEC oversight in the US may complicate Bitcoin operations.
Possible bans on cryptocurrencies in countries with unstable economies.
2. Hyperbitcoinization
According to denfaina, as Bitcoin's popularity grows, there will be a mismatch between supply and demand, making it difficult to apply wave theory.
3. Technical factors
If the Bitcoin network faces scalability or security issues, it may reduce investor trust.
Alternative forecasts
Some analysts, including Peter Schiff, predict a possible decline in Bitcoin, citing excessive dependence on institutional investments and weak practical applicability.
Thus, despite optimistic forecasts, the market remains volatile, and long-term investors must consider both fundamental and technical factors.