Waiting for Service

Brothers, happy weekend! This week we experienced a significant correction after the rebound. One wave of bad news followed another.

1. First, the job vacancy data greatly exceeded expectations.

2. Next, there were reports that the U.S. plans to sell $6.5 billion worth of BTC to crash the market.

3. Yesterday, the non-farm payroll data also greatly exceeded expectations, and U.S. Treasury yields skyrocketed. Next week, after the strong non-farm payroll report, the CPI will make a heavy debut! The December CPI will be released at 9:30 PM on Wednesday. It is expected that the cryptocurrency market will not surge significantly before the CPI is announced. After the CPI release, there are two scenarios:

(1) If the bad news comes true, we may see a small dip first, followed by a rebound due to expectations of Trump taking office.

(2) If the CPI falls short of expectations, it could be positive for the cryptocurrency market and lead to a rebound. Therefore, the probability of a rise next week is greater than that of a fall, as Trump is expected to impose tariffs on trade partners after taking office, and the Federal Reserve is likely to continue slowing the pace of interest rate cuts. The non-farm payroll data from Friday greatly exceeded expectations, and the dollar surged in the short term, closing this week at 109.64, marking six consecutive weeks of gains.

Yesterday we mentioned that the current expectations for interest rate cuts have dropped to a freezing point. The expectations for tariff policies after Trump takes office have already been released. If subsequent data or proposed policies can reverse these expectations, then a return to high levels for BTC is extremely possible. These days are about being patient and not losing the bottom chips.

#BTC走势分析