The reason BTC and the overall market continued to explore lows last night is twofold. Although the non-farm data is quite good, the positive data led analysts to believe that the Federal Reserve would lower or delay interest rate cuts, leading to short-term market panic and prompting a search for a bottom. Additionally, from the trend, it does require this bottoming action to complete the candlestick repair trend. So, what might the trend look like before the 20th? Reviewing this, this video is merely a personal review and does not constitute any investment advice.

Let's start with the conclusion, followed by news and technical analysis:

Regarding BTC: Maintaining the prediction of adjustment between 92000-97000. Currently, it seems to have completed the second shoulder bottom, and with the information from the U.S. being relatively clear and the understanding of the upcoming news, there are conditions for a small upward trend. Currently, it can be bought on dips, and those with low positions can hold for a rise.

Regarding BNB: Expected to consolidate between 680-720, with a relatively safe trend. A large amount is locked in during the megadrop; if BTC rises, BNB may lag behind.

Regarding ETH: Expected to fluctuate around 3200-3500, with a weak trend. It is still not very suitable for long-term holding, and after this round of increase, it can be considered to switch to BTC.

After BTC breaks through, there will be a greater opportunity for altcoins like Dogecoin and Solana. It is suggested not to play with altcoins recently, as it is a zero-sum game state, and there is not much incremental capital involved. Currently, only if BTC breaks a new high will most sub-mainstream and altcoins have the chance to break through, but as long as BTC is consolidating, they will experience overselling.

In terms of news, Aidan Larkin from Asset Reality stated that the U.S. court's approval of civil forfeiture of Bitcoin is a normal procedure and will not be sold immediately. The sale will follow normal government procedures, including civil forfeiture application hearings and bailiff procedures. He believes the likelihood of Bitcoin being included in strategic reserves is low. Crypto analyst Willy Woo stated that Bitcoin user sentiment is optimistic, but caution is needed in the coming months, as the risk in this cycle is at its peak with a large amount of Bitcoin being sold off, and there will be profit-taking before prices normalize. Polymarket data shows that the probability of the U.S. government selling Bitcoin before Trump's inauguration is 14%, down from a previous high of 39%, with a total betting amount of $270,000. Previously, the U.S. government was authorized to sell BTC worth $6.5 billion that was seized in 2020.

Next is the technical analysis:

1. From BTC's candlestick chart, the 4-hour line still hasn't stabilized, but last night's attempt to reach a high had volume. From the daily trend, it should have reached a point where a small upward trend can occur.

2. Greed and fear index observation: Currently at 69, which is neutral, up 19 from yesterday. The index has been like a rollercoaster these past two days; yesterday's 50 indeed represents short-term market panic, but it should have ended. Currently back to the normal range of a bull market.

3. BTC perpetual contract funding rate is 0.0076%, ETH is 0.0085%, significantly higher than yesterday, with long positions gradually increasing, gradually suppressing short positions.

4. Observe the maximum pain point of options in the next three months, in the next three days between 93000-95000, with a nominal amount that is not large, making market makers not have a major impact on the market. The options contract ratio again confirms this view.

5. Spot ETF observation: BTC decreased by 1615 last night, ETH decreased by 21,300, continuing to decrease, with ETH showing a noticeable decline. If ETH continues to flow out, it will likely weaken in the future.

6. From the RSI (Relative Strength Index), similar to yesterday, BTC currently maintains strength on a weekly scale, is neutral on a 24-hour scale, and selling pressure is decreasing. ETH maintains neutrality on a weekly scale and is neutral on a 24-hour scale, similar to yesterday, relatively normal, with normal selling pressure. Note that currently, half of the mainstream altcoins have dropped to neutral on a weekly scale, and many have returned to neutral on a 24-hour scale, indicating that selling pressure is not high. The sharp wave is still relatively strong, so it is recommended to be cautious and not chase high excessively.

7. From the escape top index, it is currently in the middle to lower range, at a moderate position.

8. The BTC accumulation index has dropped to 1.28. It can be considered a slight opportunity for dollar-cost averaging, but not too much.

Last night I added a bit, after all, the pitfalls before the 20th may have passed, and the pattern is also performing well, so it is worth a try, but I only added a bit. Always respect the market and do not act impulsively. As long as there is a position, one will never miss out.