In the last Federal Reserve meeting, the hawkish interest rate cut by the Fed led to a reduction in the expectation of rate cuts in 2025 to 2 times. The release of economic data has once again dampened expectations for rate cuts.
It's almost time for Trump to take office, but the debt issue has once again become prominent. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the Treasury Department expects the U.S. will hit its debt ceiling as early as between January 14 and 23, 2025, and may need to take "extraordinary measures" to avoid the federal government falling into debt default, in order to maintain the credit and fiscal stability of the United States.
The market for 2025 is indeed uncertain, but the core factor determining market trends is the performance of the U.S. economy; everything else is a short-term influencing factor. Good economic data clearly indicates a good economic condition, so after a high probability of a negative impact, BTC will likely rebound.
However, for altcoins, it may be difficult to have a trend-driven bull market. In today's crypto market, the number of altcoins is overwhelming, and many are investments incubated by VC firms, with market values too high, continuously unlocking and cashing out, while ecological development cannot keep up with their market value. In the future, it is likely to still fluctuate passively with the market, with a high probability of "falling a lot and then rebounding, and after the rebound, continuing to fall."
