#本轮牛市周期预期

Someone asked Buffett: This morning you mentioned that if the stock market goes down, your time spent online will decrease because you'll be busy. This further deepened my impression of Berkshire, that its cash flow is very large, but in the past 12 months, your investments may have been less than before. If there's a situation where I might lose, what does waiting for attractive investments mean? How long are you willing to wait?

Buffett: You are right, we haven't found anything to talk about for several months, and as for how long we will wait, we will wait indefinitely. We won't buy anything just for the sake of buying. We will only buy when we believe we've got something attractive. By the way, if something is 5% or 10% cheaper, it won't make a substantial difference. We don't know when this cycle will end. I said if the capital return rate remains unchanged, then this stubbornness is entirely appropriate. But even so, they are not at all enticing, so if returns stay at the current level, we won't feel like we've missed out on anything. Because from our perspective, if these levels are normal, investing in them still won't yield huge returns. But that doesn't mean the market will perform poorly in the short term. The market can do anything; just look at the history of the market, and you'll see clearly everything that's happening.

We don't have a timetable. The more performance there is, the more performance there is. When we see something meaningful, we are willing to take very quick and large-scale action. But we are unwilling to take action on anything that we believe does not align with the facts. You won't get a return just for taking action; you will only get a return for making the right decisions.