Regarding the long-term trend of Bitcoin (BTC), despite short-term pullback pressure, the long-term bullish pattern remains evident. Weekly level shows pullback demand, while daily level displays strong upward momentum.
Since November, the market has been in a clear upward trend. After the monthly line change in November 2024, the initiation of the bull market was established, and the monthly line has remained in an upward state, indicating that the bull market is still ongoing.
1. Current market bullish and bearish sentiment analysis:
The mindset of current market participants presents a classic game state:
* Bulls: Still insist on being bullish and follow the strategy of buying on dips, viewing declines as opportunities to build or add to positions. (Position is usually heavier) The important support level for bulls is near 85000, and strong buying is expected around this price level, so the price is unlikely to truly reach this position but will rebound in advance; or it may quickly break below this level, cleaning out the bulls before rapidly rebounding.
* Bears: Strongly bearish on the current market, but once the price breaks through the previous high, bears will quickly stop loss, indicating that their position is not firm and may even turn bullish. (Position usually does not exceed one-third) Therefore, even if a pullback occurs, it is unlikely to be a true top, at least it will induce buying above 102000, making bears feel fearful and hesitant to short, turning them into bulls, and then subsequently dropping again, because what the main force needs is a counterparty that can be liquidated. The main force can control the short to medium-term trend, but cannot fully grasp the long-term trend, or rather, a long-term bull market is beneficial to all parties.
* Bears who think the bull market is over: These investors usually dare not heavily short, only chasing shorts during declines. To make them lose money, the market needs to drop quickly, luring them into shorting, and when they are firmly bearish, it is often the moment when the altcoin market starts. (Usually flat or light positions)
* Worrying about the end of the bull market: These investors chase bullish positions during rises and bearish positions during declines, so the market needs to create volatile conditions to make them experience at least two losses. (Usually heavily invested in altcoins) The altcoin market still holds opportunities, but how to prevent them from seizing significant upward trends, and instead selling during rises while anticipating a bear market to buy back, is something the main force needs to consider.
2. Possible trading strategies of the main force:
What the main force most wants to see is that all participants lose money, so they may adopt the following strategies:
For the above four types of investors, the main force will adopt different strategies for 'harvesting'. For heavily invested bulls, the main force may break through their psychological defense with a rapid drop, forcing them to cut losses; for bears, they may induce a bullish market to make them stop loss or even reverse to buy; for those who think the bull market is over, they will use a rebound after a quick drop to 'slap their face'; for those worried about the end of the bull market, they will create frequent fluctuations to make them sway back and forth, ultimately leading to losses.
Last month, altcoins experienced a significant drop and there is a demand for a rebound, but it seems that it has not yet fully arrived. The overall market still maintains a bullish pattern, showing characteristics of slow rises and rapid falls.
I personally hope that the market can quickly drop one more time, for the last wash before the bull market, to undermine the confidence of most investors, allowing the main force to acquire chips at a lower price, thus truly initiating a comprehensive altcoin bull market.