Technical aspects:
ETH
1. The pressure of the M top neckline still exists. Yesterday, it closed with a doji. Beware of short-term changes.
2. There is a divergence between volume and price in the rebound with reduced volume. The direction of volume amplification becomes the key to long and short positions.
The difference between the current stage and the shrinking volume in early November
(1) The former is the main rising wave after breaking through the key pressure. The shrinking rise represents that the market is optimistic about the bulls and is reluctant to sell chips.
(2) At present, due to the technical repair of the short-term downward trend, it is relatively weak when intersecting with the former.
3. Volume distribution + Fibonacci
(1) The key reversal point fibo0.618 resonates with the high-level chip concentration zone + MA20 (BOLL middle track). Even if the bulls break through the neckline, they will still face greater pressure.
(2) In terms of wave structure, beware of B C wave correction after the rebound is in place
(3) If the price breaks through the neckline pressure and starts a further rebound, the space will be weaker than the previous rise
Reasons:
<span The previous rise was due to the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, which is the result of the combined effect of technical aspects + sentiment aspects + capital aspects + fundamental aspects
<span The current surge lacks further positive basis (Trump's inauguration is beneficial to the cryptocurrency market in the medium and long term, not in the short term), especially after the December interest rate decision and Powell's hawkish tone, the market is more likely to maintain the subsequent monetary policy unchanged in the short term
(4) In terms of technical structure, after the previous pin test of the previous support, the time for the bulls to accumulate greater upward momentum is short, which does not support a sharp rise - there is a theoretical possibility of a second bottoming out in the technical aspect - in line with the C wave adjustment
4. In the 4H chart, the shape is as follows:
<a> Triangle
(1) The price repeatedly touches the upper edge (neckline) pressure, and there is a bearish shape of a long upper shadow (inverted head) of the K line in the high sideways consolidation stage, and the upper pressure is obvious
(2) At this stage, it is not at the end of the shape, There is a high probability of continued volatility in the short term
<II> Rising channel
(1) Channel middle track + M top neckline + triangle upper edge + Gann angle line 3/1 four-fold pressure resonance
(2) The long-short watershed depends on the channel middle track. Even if it breaks up, it is still suppressed by Gann 4/1 line
The above views are for reference only. Trading risks are at your own risk. Pay attention to position and risk control
Trading strategy:
3350-3550 range high sell low buy