For cryptocurrency enthusiasts, the savvy ones operate from underground, while the skilled traders soar above. They must know everything about astronomy, geography, and culture, and not to mention they can easily discuss economic trends. Alas, there’s much to lament; in the past, by the year's end, I would summarize the year's blockchain gaming track and look forward to the next year. This year has been peculiar; BTC has increased fivefold, yet no blockchain games have emerged. Fortunately, I am used to meandering thoughts and aimless pondering, so I’ll just write something to fill the gap. I hope the crypto gods can allow my tokens to break even, not seeking profit, just hoping to recoup my losses.
1. First, let's talk about the major situation in 2024. The most important thing is Trump returning to power in the US, representing a rise in populism and the extreme right. Moreover, it's not just the US; in many other democratic countries, most of the newly elected parties are right-wing conservative parties, which means populism will become even more prevalent on this planet.
2. The world has already entered a rate-cutting cycle in 2024, driven by significant inflationary pressures. Major economic entities like the EU, the UK, Canada, and about 70% of countries and regions have cut rates. The US's Powell delayed until September to cut rates, so 2025 will definitely be the first half of the rate-cutting cycle, but we cannot expect the US to drop to 0% again. As long as there is a cut, it represents the greatest expectation for the crypto circle in 2025.
3. The mysterious Eastern country has started to implement various stimulus policies, from the stock market to the housing market, but the effects are average. The common people have been manipulated too many times and are hesitant to believe; more importantly, they genuinely have little money left.
4. The US's GDP growth in 2024 is still 2.8%, which is shocking. It's not easy for the Democratic Party to sustain this after the pandemic with stringent interest rate hikes. However, they still lost their grip. The reason is that the American public is very practical: 2.8% means nothing to me; my real experience is that I feel poorer. This 2.8% is achieved by introducing a large number of illegal immigrants and relaxing inflation. Sleepy Joe Biden thinks he can fool us, but it's not that easy!
5. The US's upcoming rate cut will likely be around 3%, unless a huge black swan event occurs. The crypto industry’s celebration in 2025 is mainly focused on the specific policies regarding cryptocurrency from Trump and Musk, such as the much-anticipated BTC national reserve. Don’t forget that both Trump and Musk are businessmen, especially with their pockets full of crypto; it wouldn't make sense not to leverage these four years to cash in.
6. A global trade war is definitely on the horizon. China's export-oriented manufacturing costs are going to increase significantly; they might either move to countries like Vietnam and Malaysia or continue to squeeze labor costs (which is quite difficult). Don't be fooled by the export data being the best among the three driving forces in 2024; it's just the dawn before the dark. Global demand needs Chinese manufacturing to replenish stocks; as for investment, the real estate sector is stagnant and can only rely on government infrastructure to hold up; consumer spending is bleak, and the greatest pastime for common people has become strolling in parks. The A-shares reacted most directly; after a few quick bursts, they softened again. However, the nationalistic government still has many tricks up its sleeve. Just look at how direct the economic work meeting at the end of 2024 was: for 2025, they are set on major monetary easing and stimulation; just wait for it! I’m deeply stuck in A-shares and unfinished real estate; will there ever be a day of liberation?
7. Japan's emergence from 20 years of deflation has become consensus since 2024, which is why Buffett and others are heavily investing in Japan. While other countries are cutting interest rates, Japan is raising them instead, finally seeing some signs of inflation, with ordinary citizens' wages starting to rise by 4%. Japan has endured for 20 years, previously relying entirely on government investment and central bank printing in a state capitalism model. However, since the end of 2023, the Nikkei index has risen from just over 30,000 to a stable 40,000 now, and this surge could last a long time. If we can harness the Japanese's crazy nature into cryptocurrency, it won't be worse than the foolish crypto speculators everywhere.
8. The EU is constrained by the Russia-Ukraine war, making economic recovery impossible. Even if Trump pressures the old driver and Putin to ceasefire, the EU's economy won't improve in the short term because Germany, the engine, is stalling. The stereotypical Germans rarely use radical fiscal policies to stimulate the economy, but that was when all other aspects were strong. Now, with energy issues and an aging population, while others are stimulating, if you are still timid, there’s no hope.
In summary, cryptocurrency will not perform poorly in 2025! At least it won't be worse than in 2023 and 2024. Just let me break even; getting rich is impossible now. I have reconciled with myself, and I'm just hoping to get scammed fewer times.