How is uni looking at the moment?

$BTC

Cannot fall and look bearish when it rises, each KOL has their own trading logic, but overall, one still needs to have their own judgment on the general trend. Regardless of right or wrong, one must acknowledge it; one cannot admit being wrong only when it is right. After all, no one is a god; as long as one doesn't get liquidated, stop-loss is a minor issue. 😂😂

Strict stop-loss is the best calming agent for contracts and the fundamental rule for long-term trading. Just like the profit-loss ratio mentioned yesterday, as long as the profit-loss ratio is high enough, even a 20% win rate can still be profitable. With a low profit-loss ratio, what does an 80% win rate matter? 😓😓

BTC started to rally without volume near 100,000 over the weekend, advising not to enter positions. It later surged to 108,000, which was unpredictable. A no-volume rally can push up 8k; who could foresee that? However, the subsequent pullback was expected. I personally have always believed that there would be a daily-level pullback, going through an adjustment wave and overall downward movement.

Specifically, the rebound positions based on Fibonacci are at 0.382, 0.5, and 0.618, with the final rebound around 99,000, which is between 0.382 and 0.5, before continuing downwards. Overall, the trend analysis leads to a rather ironic statement: one wants to rise, or fall, without ruling out the possibility of sideways movement. Of course, this is also a common flaw among analysts, wanting everyone to be aware of the risks. Contract trading is very different from spot trading; it is more real-time, with higher and faster trading frequency, and lower tolerance for errors. This requires both the trader and the follower to keep a close watch on the market in real-time, to communicate specific trading logic and ideas, and to cultivate a kind of tacit understanding, which definitely cannot be developed without a period of following.

There are no absolute longs or shorts in contracts. Most retail traders are day traders, meaning they prepare to close positions within a few hours. Such trades look at 4-hour and daily charts, and few can hold onto them. Even if they do, they will frequently stop-loss. Therefore, traders mostly operate around support and resistance levels rather than so-called trend trades. Consequently, for most questions like where to short, where to long, and how much to look at, I can only say that excluding the trading cycle, asking about long or short is just nonsense.

Everyone has different reasons for trading but the same goal: making money. However, one should not have the mentality of turning a few hundred U into tens of thousands. How high of a win rate and how much capital is needed to achieve a 100-fold increase? It’s better to be a bit more rational, aiming to turn a few thousand into tens of thousands with effort still holds great hope.